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Thread: Feedback requested: Vanity Callsign Predictions, including chances of assignment

  1. #1
    Beach Bum
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    Feedback requested: Vanity Callsign Predictions, including chances of assignment

    https://vanities.k2cr.com/

    Hi, all. I haven't been around here in a while, but I thought you all might have some good feedback about this site I developed.

    I wanted to predict vanity assignments, so I coded this up from FCC data. Similar to AE7Q, but doing simulation of the assignments to produce a real estimate at the chances. For example, see the applications for the NR6H call. There are two applicants, with chances of assignment of 50% each.

    For a more complex example, see the applications for KG6L. Several applications are excluded for various reasons. Others have chances that range from 3% to 21%. Some applicants have much lower odds than others. While most have chances around 21%, one has chances around 3% due to their other applied-for callsigns taking precedence.

    Use cases:

    - By looking at many applications, you can see patterns and plan a more successful application.
    - If you have multiple applications pending, you can consider whether to withdraw some applications to improve your chances or to be certain of receiving a preferred callsign.
    - Add up the chances of assignment for each of your applications and if they reach 100%, you can choose to stop making further applications.
    - Look for callsigns that are pending but have a less-than-100% chance of being assigned, and consider putting in an application for that callsign.

    Note: this was all doable thanks to code from the fcc-db project to pull FCC data and load it into a sqlite data store.

    Please see the FAQ and let me know if I can clarify at all.

    Thanks and 73
    K2CR
    Last edited by KC2SYK; 01-10-2022 at 10:51 PM. Reason: format

  2. #2
    Orca Whisperer W3WN's Avatar
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    Didn't we just see this very thread Over Yonder?
    “Nobody is going to feel sorry for us. 90% of the people don’t care, the other 10% are glad it happened.” — Clint Hurdle, 2019

    BAN THE DH!

    Fudd's First Law of Opposition: If you push something hard enough, it WILL fall down.
    Teslacle's Deviant to Fudd's Law: It goes in, it must go out.

    Just remember: Abraham Lincoln didn't die in vain. He died in Washington, DC

    Cutch 2K!!

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  3. #3
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    Yup. Didn't get any feedback on qrz. I wonder if I didn't explain things well, or too much navel-gazing going on there.
    Last edited by KC2SYK; 01-11-2022 at 08:53 AM. Reason: spelling

  4. #4
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
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    Bit more simple here look in database if call is free claim it online wait for papers to arrive or online if accepted, done.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  5. #5
    Beach Bum
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    Quote Originally Posted by PA5COR View Post
    Bit more simple here look in database if call is free claim it online wait for papers to arrive or online if accepted, done.
    The complicated bit here comes in when there are multiple people that apply for the same callsign on the same day. That's how we end up with the competition.

  6. #6
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
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    Here who claims first gets the callsign.
    all automated with time slot.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  7. #7
    Orca Whisperer W3WN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC2SYK View Post
    Yup. Didn't get any feedback on qrz. I wonder if I didn't explain things well, or too much navel-gazing going on there.
    OK.

    You explained things pretty well, I think. Sorry, I haven't looked into it... too much like work right now.
    “Nobody is going to feel sorry for us. 90% of the people don’t care, the other 10% are glad it happened.” — Clint Hurdle, 2019

    BAN THE DH!

    Fudd's First Law of Opposition: If you push something hard enough, it WILL fall down.
    Teslacle's Deviant to Fudd's Law: It goes in, it must go out.

    Just remember: Abraham Lincoln didn't die in vain. He died in Washington, DC

    Cutch 2K!!

    “Nero fiddled while Rome burned. Trump golfed.” — Bernie Sanders

    Quando Omni Flunkus Moritati


  8. #8
    Beach Bum
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    No sweat. Thanks for taking a look.

  9. #9
    Pope Carlo l NQ6U's Avatar
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    Might be a little too esoteric for most hams, Chris.
    All the world’s a stage, but obviously the play is unrehearsed and everybody is ad-libbing his lines. Maybe that’s why it’s hard to tell if we’re living in a tragedy or a farce.

  10. #10
    Beach Bum
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    Thanks, Carl. Maybe so.

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