"After Armageddon" on the History Channel

[K7SGJ]

The Navy has mothballs? Who Gnu? I always heard they have no balls.

[KK4AMI]

Ever read Lucifer's Hammer?

That is kind of the classic "Disaster" book. Comet destroys earth and man finishes it off. Great reference even for the Dooms Day guys.

[N2NH]

That is kind of the classic "Disaster" book. Comet destroys earth and man finishes it off. Great reference even for the Dooms Day guys.

Excellent book and probably close to the truth. It will quickly disperse any ideas that when the s#!t hits the fan we will have any degree of control. Costners movie The Postman was about one character from that book.

Read the entire link Cor. The one thing not covered much is that the most pessimistic of predictions are turning out to be extremely optimistic. I feel that it is the reason the rich are going for the gold. Literally.

Not that it will make much difference in a new world where the only constant is chaos.

[KC2UGV]

Excellent book and probably close to the truth. It will quickly disperse any ideas that when the s#!t hits the fan we will have any degree of control. Costners movie The Postman was about one character from that book.

Read the entire link Cor. The one thing not covered much is that the most pessimistic of predictions are turning out to be extremely optimistic. I feel that it is the reason the rich are going for the gold. Literally.

Not that it will make much difference in a new world where the only constant is chaos.

Except, even gold will be worthless. The only thing that would be of any worth for the 50 years following any sort of catastrophe would be: Food, water, fuel, and weaponry.

Food and Water: Gotta have them to live, food being hard to come by after about 6 months or so. Water, a bit easier, but only if you don't care about safety of your water.

Fuel: People will keep running those internal combustion engines. Basic fact of life, is we need them.

Weaponry: Guns will be valuable for the first year maybe. Then, after all the loonies have spent all the ammunition, carrying an 8 pound rifle you're scared to use so you don't run out of ammo becomes pointless. Back to those who know how to make arrows, bows, and can work metal.

[KK4AMI]

Except, even gold will be worthless. The only thing that would be of any worth for the 50 years following any sort of catastrophe would be: Food, water, fuel, and weaponry.

Food and Water: Gotta have them to live, food being hard to come by after about 6 months or so. Water, a bit easier, but only if you don't care about safety of your water.

Fuel: People will keep running those internal combustion engines. Basic fact of life, is we need them.

Weaponry: Guns will be valuable for the first year maybe. Then, after all the loonies have spent all the ammunition, carrying an 8 pound rifle you're scared to use so you don't run out of ammo becomes pointless. Back to those who know how to make arrows, bows, and can work metal.

I'm reloading 308 Win from a 25 year old 8 lb can of powder, so guns should be around for a while. But, I am worried about the food issue. If you look at a 50 year period after a calamity, 150 million scavenging survivors plus newborns will decimate the manufactured stocks and wild game and fish population in about 10 years. Then it will be down to vegetarians and (horror) cannibalism.

[K7SGJ]

I'm reloading 308 Win from a 25 year old 8 lb can of powder, so guns should be around for a while. But, I am worried about the food issue. If you look at a 50 year period after a calamity, 150 million savaging survivors plus newborns will decimate the manufactured stocks and wild game and fish population in about 10 years. Then it will be down to vegetarians and (horror) cannibalism.

That'll put an end to the old comeback of "eat me".

[KC2UGV]

I'm reloading 308 Win from a 25 year old 8 lb can of powder, so guns should be around for a while. But, I am worried about the food issue. If you look at a 50 year period after a calamity, 150 million scavenging survivors plus newborns will decimate the manufactured stocks and wild game and fish population in about 10 years. Then it will be down to vegetarians and (horror) cannibalism.

How long do you think that 8lb can of unloaded ammunition will last with rapidly forming armed gangs, then quickly supplanted by local militias?

It ain't gunna last long. Right now, you use ammunition for sport shooting, and maybe a little hunting. Now, start using it for daily fights, daily hunting, trade, etc etc. You will find that 8lb can gone quite quickly. Until, of course, you get down to like the last 500 rounds worth. Then it will last a very long time, since you'll be concerned about not being able to replace it.

It's doubtful there will be 150 million survivors, let alone able to decimate wild game supplied. Most of those 150 million don't know thing one about hunting and foraging, so they'll starve. And then, when you have lots of people dying around you, things become very unsanitary, very quickly. So, you can now up the kill rate based on illness and injury (Remember, no antibiotics anymore).

In the event of societal collapse-level catastrophe, you can expect at most a 10% survival rate over a 50 year period. Live birth rates will drop off to very low levels (Remember, child birth used to be a very dangerous thing for the mother). Newborns will die much more often, also slowing the population growth rate.

[KK4AMI]

How long do you think that 8lb can of unloaded ammunition will last with rapidly forming armed gangs, then quickly supplanted by local militias?

I was referring to how long powder will store. 8 lbs is good for about 1435 rds of 308 Win. For 25 years, I was figuring about 60 rds per year on average (20 rds for harvesting deer) and about 40 rds per year on self defense. Maybe more at the beginning, but less as the years go on. I'm going to do my best to camouflage my existence so I don't confront armed gangs on a regular basis.

It's doubtful there will be 150 million survivors, let alone able to decimate wild game supplied. Most of those 150 million don't know thing one about hunting and foraging, so they'll starve. And then, when you have lots of people dying around you, things become very unsanitary, very quickly. So, you can now up the kill rate based on illness and injury (Remember, no antibiotics anymore).

Oh, I think the game will get pretty scarce. The hunters will hunt extra for trade to people who don't hunt and maybe get some antibiotics.

In the event of societal collapse-level catastrophe, you can expect at most a 10% survival rate over a 50 year period. Live birth rates will drop off to very low levels (Remember, child birth used to be a very dangerous thing for the mother). Newborns will die much more often, also slowing the population growth rate.

I was just guessing at 1/2 the population at the start. If it goes down to 10% after 50 years then it'll be pretty easy to hide out from armed gangs.

[N2NH]

Except, even gold will be worthless. The only thing that would be of any worth for the 50 years following any sort of catastrophe would be: Food, water, fuel, and weaponry.

Food and Water: Gotta have them to live, food being hard to come by after about 6 months or so. Water, a bit easier, but only if you don't care about safety of your water.

Fuel: People will keep running those internal combustion engines. Basic fact of life, is we need them.

Weaponry: Guns will be valuable for the first year maybe. Then, after all the loonies have spent all the ammunition, carrying an 8 pound rifle you're scared to use so you don't run out of ammo becomes pointless. Back to those who know how to make arrows, bows, and can work metal.

I definitely agree gold will be worthless, so will anything that doesn't satify basic needs like food, water, shelter and clothing. I can see that trading posts where fur can be traded for food or ammunition might come back. Maybe forts and castles. If the damage is confined, say to the coasts, continents will be cut off from each other. Messengers will be necessary for communications locally. I doubt if a society like this could support more than 300 million people world-wide for the long term. That would mean a 95% reduction in population. Medicine will be the big problem. Got hypertension or diabetes? Big problem. Enough to wipe that smile off of Smilin' Bobs face...

[KC2UGV]

I was referring to how long powder will store. 8 lbs is good for about 1435 rds of 308 Win. For 25 years, I was figuring about 60 rds per year on average (20 rds for harvesting deer) and about 40 rds per year on self defense. Maybe more at the beginning, but less as the years go on. I'm going to do my best to camouflage my existence so I don't confront armed gangs on a regular basis.

You do realize that 40 rounds isn't even a single confrontation, right? There's a reason soldiers carry 240 rounds on their persons.

Armed gangs are looking for your supplies. Are you just going to hide while they take everything you have?

Oh, I think the game will get pretty scarce. The hunters will hunt extra for trade to people who don't hunt and maybe get some antibiotics.

There are no antibiotics. Antibiotics expire in about 3 months. And trade for game will likely be non-existent for several years, as everyone will be working on their own needs.

I was just guessing at 1/2 the population at the start. If it goes down to 10% after 50 years then it'll be pretty easy to hide out from armed gangs.

Maybe. If you're buy yourself. Good luck pulling guard, building habitation, foraging for food, purifying water, and cooking as a team of one. Something tells me you would collapse after about 3 months of that.