Current estimates are that a gamma-ray burst will happen in our galaxy, or one nearby, about once every five million years. However, there is a good chance that the radiation would not have an impact on Earth. This is because it all depends on the beaming. Even objects very close to a gamma-ray burst can be unaffected, just so long as they are not in the beam path. However, if an object
is in the beam path, the results can be devastating.
There is evidence that suggests that a GRB could have occurred about 450 million years ago, which could have led to a mass extinction. But this is uncertain.
But what if a gamma-ray burst, beamed directly at Earth, happened today? Well, first of all, in that unlikely event, the damage would still depend on how close the burst is. For argument sake, lets assume that it occurred in the
Milky Way galaxy, but very far away from
our Solar System.
With the gamma-rays beamed directly at us, the radiation would deplete a significant portion of our atmosphere, specifically the ozone layer. Additionally, the photons would cause chemical reactions leading to photochemical smog. This would further deplete our protection from
cosmic rays.
And then there is the lethal doses of radiation that surface life would be exposed too. The end result would be mass extinctions.
Luckily, the statistical probability of such an event is low. We seem to be in a galaxy where supermassive stars are rare, and
binary compact object systems aren't dangerously close. And even if a GRB event happened in our galaxy, the likelihood that the event would be highly beamed directly at us, with nothing between us and it is even more unlikely.