Nothing political in my post, just real facts, even a broke clock is twice right a day... but that does not mean it is a good clock.

Up to the first decade in January not much change, too warm for the time of the year, and dry.
High pressure area still dominating the weather here, enough snow in the Alp regions in Switzerland etc though.
7 to 10 C here, cloudy but dry now.
https://www.buienradar.nl/weer/Sneek...47063/14daagse 14 day forecast for my region in the Netherlands.
Any effects of the SSWE will be after 2 or 3 weeks time .


Quote Originally Posted by N1LAF View Post
Let's keep the political nonsense out of the discussion, this is not the place for it.

I came across Bastardi's forecasts last winter, and he was dead-on accurate in predicting big snow storms along the east coast. Last last Jan/early Feb, there was a big snow storm in Europe, he said that storm will result in a big east coast storm. I counted the days, and on the tenth day, we did have a big storm. Last Aug, he predicted a cold, dry winter for the east coast, when the others were predicting warmer than normal. The SSW that was not foreseen, will probably increase the precipitation along the east coast, but as you know, SSW's are not yet well understood. Slide 16 from this NOAA presentation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../mjoupdate.pdf, has the GFS MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) in line with Bastardi's earlier prediction, with phase 6 going to extremes. Phase 7 and 8 is what to watch for, as timing in the coldest part of winter. The east coast (US) and western Europe is in the same situation in this scenario. The SSW will make things interesting. Please keep us posted with your weather events.