Page 288 of 351 FirstFirst ... 188238278286287288289290298338 ... LastLast
Results 2,871 to 2,880 of 3501

Thread: We Could Talk About The Weather

  1. #2871
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Netherlands
    Posts
    12,183
    Nothing political in my post, just real facts, even a broke clock is twice right a day... but that does not mean it is a good clock.

    Up to the first decade in January not much change, too warm for the time of the year, and dry.
    High pressure area still dominating the weather here, enough snow in the Alp regions in Switzerland etc though.
    7 to 10 C here, cloudy but dry now.
    https://www.buienradar.nl/weer/Sneek...47063/14daagse 14 day forecast for my region in the Netherlands.
    Any effects of the SSWE will be after 2 or 3 weeks time .


    Quote Originally Posted by N1LAF View Post
    Let's keep the political nonsense out of the discussion, this is not the place for it.

    I came across Bastardi's forecasts last winter, and he was dead-on accurate in predicting big snow storms along the east coast. Last last Jan/early Feb, there was a big snow storm in Europe, he said that storm will result in a big east coast storm. I counted the days, and on the tenth day, we did have a big storm. Last Aug, he predicted a cold, dry winter for the east coast, when the others were predicting warmer than normal. The SSW that was not foreseen, will probably increase the precipitation along the east coast, but as you know, SSW's are not yet well understood. Slide 16 from this NOAA presentation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../mjoupdate.pdf, has the GFS MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) in line with Bastardi's earlier prediction, with phase 6 going to extremes. Phase 7 and 8 is what to watch for, as timing in the coldest part of winter. The east coast (US) and western Europe is in the same situation in this scenario. The SSW will make things interesting. Please keep us posted with your weather events.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  2. #2872
    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Ledyard, CT
    Posts
    13,937
    Quote Originally Posted by PA5COR View Post
    Nothing political in my post, just real facts, even a broke clock is twice right a day... but that does not mean it is a good clock.

    Up to the first decade in January not much change, too warm for the time of the year, and dry...
    Even that 'fact' can be wrong... when you have a 24 hour military clock ;)

    Could this be the calm before an active winter season?

    For the curious (and not too old to learn), I find this good reading, and what we may expect in the near future.
    Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather

  3. #2873
    Tribal Warrior AA1OH's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Location
    Lyons,ga
    Posts
    271
    68 F this morning in south/central Georgia going up to 75 F and rain for the next few days.....
    I thought religions were prophet based organizations.
    What do you mean I am out of money? I still have checks!
    Remember, amateurs built the Ark, professionals built the Titanic

  4. #2874
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Netherlands
    Posts
    12,183
    Less cold in the arctic, less cover of sea ice there, warmer sea temperatures, will influence weather, slowing down the jetstream, and make it wander more.
    As we can see with the SSWE where extreme cold temperatures can go down to Florida, or let it snow in Egypt and the Arabic countries...
    At the same time North Finland, Sweden, Alaska etc see higher temperatures as in spring...
    The current SSWE will influence the weather in 14 days or so, depending where the cold air is pushed to, and depending on blockages and lower or blocked jetstream can linger quite long.
    I looked at some models trying to predict where the colder air will end up, but the models are now totally disagreeing with each other, so we just have to wait.
    Looking ahead 5 days is reliable, 5 to 10 days is a trend, further ahead is estimated guesswork, further ahead is underbelly feelings.
    One small change in the chaotic weather system will overthrow every prediction further as 10 days ahead.
    So,sorry if i can only laugh at Joe Bastardi predicting the winter of death/doom since 2012 every year in the UK tabloids and "news" channels for here and be proved wrong every year.
    It is winter, we get frost, snow and that is expected, how much? only time will tell, see me back in April ;)
    Till now December was too warm, too dry, almost no frost, and 1//2 inch snow that lasted all of 12 hours.
    But there is still January and February to go, though the first decade in January is more of the same.
    And, although seldom, we have the odd cold winters here, once every 10 to 15 years or so, looking back since 1750 when the first unbroken weather data was noted down, more and more seldom though.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  5. #2875
    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Ledyard, CT
    Posts
    13,937
    Well, Cor, I guess that is what happens when you listen to tabloids rather than direct source. Since I am listening to the direct source, I haven't heard anything dramatic. I get a thorough explanation of the MJO, what phase we are in, what could happen next, and why. There is a lot of discussion on 'analog' years, otherwise known as similar years of same patterns.

    Predictions (US):NOAA - Generally warm to neutral.
    Joe at Weatherbell - Long cold winter

    We will know who was closer at the end of winter.

    Things to look at: AO(Arctic Oscillation) - negative for colder/stormier
    SSW and the Polar vortex
    MJO Phases.
    NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) - negative for colder/stormier

    Either way, my shovels and ice breakers are ready, as is my snow thrower. And a healthy stock of firewood.

  6. #2876
    "Island Bartender" KG4CGC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    EM84ru, Easley SC
    Posts
    51,263
    56ºF
    99% humidity
    Barometric pressure @30.01in.
    Wind NE @2mph
    Dew point 55º
    Visibility 0.6 miles
    Cloudy and foggy

  7. #2877
    "Usual Suspect" WZ7U's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    CN86jc
    Posts
    5,453
    We're about 10* less here but similar in all other aspects.

    Like that post was...
    Moving on, my posts are not helpful

  8. #2878
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Netherlands
    Posts
    12,183
    You guessed wrong, tabloids i read for fun online and wonder why people read them.
    My sources are the Royal Dutch Meteorologic Institute, ( KNMI) and a series of other sources, NOAA, professional meteorologic forums etc.
    As shown for the 4 season tires of the new car, i do prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
    4 centuries ago the Netherlands was the first country that kept weather data on daily basis till today.
    The KNMI was founded in January 1854, we can use the data from 4 centuries to compare.
    Including temperature, rainfall, sun hours, and sea level.
    Mind you the season might be totally different for the USA and Europe.
    Bastardi predictions were for Europe blistering cold December and lots of snow, didn 't happen, so he's already blown it there.
    Comparing similar yeears forget the climate changed since those years, and can only give a very limited sample.
    As stated above, a relative small change anywhere can totally change the pattern and outcome of every "prediction"' .

    It is a chaotic system predictions over a 14 day period are already dodgy, longer predictions are gueswork, and if you like Bastardi predicts for every winter the "winter of death/doom" there is a change you might get lucky, till now he failed miserably.
    As stated, a stopped clock is right 2 times a day, still a failed clock.





    Quote Originally Posted by N1LAF View Post
    Well, Cor, I guess that is what happens when you listen to tabloids rather than direct source. Since I am listening to the direct source, I haven't heard anything dramatic. I get a thorough explanation of the MJO, what phase we are in, what could happen next, and why. There is a lot of discussion on 'analog' years, otherwise known as similar years of same patterns.

    Predictions (US):NOAA - Generally warm to neutral.
    Joe at Weatherbell - Long cold winter

    We will know who was closer at the end of winter.

    Things to look at: AO(Arctic Oscillation) - negative for colder/stormier
    SSW and the Polar vortex
    MJO Phases.
    NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) - negative for colder/stormier

    Either way, my shovels and ice breakers are ready, as is my snow thrower. And a healthy stock of firewood.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  9. #2879
    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Ledyard, CT
    Posts
    13,937
    We shall see.... in March.

    The Weather Channel now supports the Eastern US Colder winter prediction

  10. #2880
    "Island Bartender" KG4CGC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    EM84ru, Easley SC
    Posts
    51,263
    60ºF
    77% Humidity
    Barometric pressure 30.15in
    Wind NNE @3mph
    Dew point 52º
    Visibility 9.3 miles
    Sunny with some high clouds

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •