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Thread: We Could Talk About The Weather

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  1. #1
    Beach Bum
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    Quote Originally Posted by N8YX View Post
    One of my coworkers lives very near Chino, CA...knows of the mess which happened in Paradise.

    I hope you folks don't suffer a repeat of that.
    Chino or Chico? One is east of Los Angeles. The other is 12 miles from Paradise. People confuse the two all the time.

  2. #2
    "Usual Suspect" WZ7U's Avatar
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    Had that problem with a load of shopping carts once. Both stops were on the bill. The boss read them wrong and went to Chino first. Chino's load was in the nose, not the tail. What a freaking nightmare that load was, 6 or 7 stops all together and we had to reverse engineer the whole count and route to keep it right. Taught me early on to pay attention to the bills.

    He wasn't too happy when I pointed out his error about 300 miles out of route. Of course I was in training so I was paying attention to other things like the actual operation of the truck. I only caught it because I was not driving and got bored so I thought it a good time to look at that sort of stuff. Did eventually get an atta-boy for it and proved my worth early on to the company. I'm glad I didn't have to make that call to dispatch to say oops.

    How does all that relate to the possible summer coming? If we don't keep up on the rain/snow around here we dry out quick and this region is used to its moisture. We get bad fires as it is in Oregon, but if it continues to dry like this, we could see epic fires in places that haven't had fires like that in 70-80 years; areas that are now all built up. No bueno....

  3. #3
    Conch Master suddenseer's Avatar
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    Damn it has been cold here. 50's in the morning, and mid 60's daytime. I had to wear a sweater on the bike today!

    cul de n8tb
    "Sadly, it always takes a few martyrs to get the ball rolling." Colonel Tim Boldman 2001
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  4. #4
    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
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    Cold and snow will return soon. Interesting read (now permalinked bookmark)
    Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts

    Partial content

    Summary

    - The GFS is predicting that over the next two weeks, ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered south of the Aleutians are predicted to force downstream troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and relatively cold temperatures across much of Canada and the Western US with ridging and relatively mild temperatures for the Eastern US. However, the ECMWF model has been predicting a colder solution for the Eastern US and I describe in the Impacts section my reasoning for favoring the ECMWF solution.

    Impacts

    - The GFS model is still predicting that generally this pattern of Arctic temperatures to continue. Therefore, based on the GFS forecast I would argue that even if the impacts from the stratospheric PV disruption continue to descend from the stratosphere to the surface that favor cold in the Eastern US and Europe, the cold can only be transient as warming focused in the Barents Kara Seas favors the most consistent cold across Northern Asia. However, the ECMWF model is predicting colder temperatures in at least the Northeastern US than the GFS with the trough axis across North America further east relative to the GFS.

    - I favor the ECMWF solution, but I have to admit my reasoning even though is based on ideas that I have discussed before are still fairly speculative so those of a faint of heart might want to skip ahead. As I have discussed previously often the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) center has a reflection in the troposphere. The stratospheric PV is currently centered over Svalbard and is predicted, or a lobe of the PV is predicted, to be centered over or near the Barents-Kara Seas. A polar low in the troposphere would bring colder temperatures to the Barents Kara Seas. An end to the focus of Arctic warming in this region could allow for greater warming elsewhere in the Arctic including near Alaska and possibly over across to Greenland. This would favor an eastward shift of the cold temperatures across North America more consistent with the ECMWF forecast. If I am correct that a tropospheric polar low could set up in the Barents-Kara Seas/Scandinavia region, this does not favor cold but rather mild temperatures for much of Europe.

    ====

    We shall see... site worth looking at.

  5. #5
    Master Navigator KC9ECI's Avatar
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    Wednesday night it's predicted to be -27 °F. Thinking I might add some antigel to the truck and make sure I start the girls cars a couple times overnight.
    I am surprised at such a sudden deterioration in a woman whose only ailment was a lazy anus.

  6. #6
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
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    Temps back to normal for the time of the year, above 0 C that is, with a mix of sun, rain, sleet hail mixed in.
    No problem for the new ( ish) Hyundai I10, tested in the last december checkup good for - 30 C + and the dinky 1 liter engine boasts an 70 Amp AGM battery for the stop and go system in place of the normal 44 amp lead battery for the cars without stop and go system.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
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    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  7. #7
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    Thursday morning is forecasted to be -34F here. At that time we will be colder than Siberia, Mt Everest, and the South Pole.

  8. #8
    "Island Bartender" KG4CGC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by X-Rated View Post
    Thursday morning is forecasted to be -34F here. At that time we will be colder than Siberia, Mt Everest, and the South Pole.
    Hey. What is your high supposed to be for that day? -17ºF?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG4CGC View Post
    Hey. What is your high supposed to be for that day? -17ºF?
    I've never seen a high in the negative teens before. We're normally around 10 above. But yeah. Around -14 or so.

  10. #10
    "Island Bartender" KG4CGC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by X-Rated View Post
    I've never seen a high in the negative teens before. We're normally around 10 above. But yeah. Around -14 or so.
    Amazing. Stay warm. Do your best.
    One of our forecasts (I use a couple of different ones) looks like this. They're all calling for similar.

    176.jpg

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