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Thread: Sun nearly blank

  1. #11
    Orca Whisperer n2ize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PA5COR View Post
    If that was true we should have had super conditions for decades by now.

    Reality check: The energy output of the Sun varies very little over the solar cycle (i.e., by about 0.1%).
    here are some suggestions that there may also be regional climate impacts due to the solar activity. Measurements from NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment show that solar UV output is more variable than the total solar irradiance. Climate modelling suggests that low solar activity may result in, for example, colder winters in the US and southern Europe and warmer winters in Canada and northern Europe, with little change in globally-averaged temperature.[2] More broadly, links have been suggested between solar cycles, global climate and events like El Nino.[85] In other research, Daniel J. Hancock and Douglas N. Yarger found "statistically significant relationships between the double [~21 year] sunspot cycle and the 'January thaw' phenomenon along the East Coast and between the double sunspot cycle and 'drought' (June temperature and precipitation) in the Midwest."[86]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_v...on_and_Weather
    I keep my 2 feet on the ground, and my head in the twilight zone.

  2. #12
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
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    last 2 years we saw sunspots rising, though we had some cold winters.
    It's weather.

    Over the last 30 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate are going in opposite directions. This has led a number of scientists independently concluding that the sun cannot be the cause of recent global warming.
    One of the most common and persistent climate myths is that the sun is the cause. This argument is made by cherry picking the data - showing past periods when sun and climate move together but ignoring the last few decades when the two diverge.

    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  3. #13
    SK Member (10/28/2012) - Island Prude
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    - "Going in opposite directions" looks more like phase lag when I look at the posted data.

    - Many of the arguments in this area seem to ignore the possibility of feedback loops. The divergence of the last thirty years could be just such an effect. As with all poorly understood time series, whether we're on the edge of thermal runaway will probably not be known until it's too late to do anything about it.

  4. #14
    Orca Whisperer n2ize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PA5COR View Post
    last 2 years we saw sunspots rising, though we had some cold winters.
    It's weather.

    Over the last 30 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate are going in opposite directions. This has led a number of scientists independently concluding that the sun cannot be the cause of recent global warming.
    One of the most common and persistent climate myths is that the sun is the cause. This argument is made by cherry picking the data - showing past periods when sun and climate move together but ignoring the last few decades when the two diverge.

    Bear in mind that the stuff I referenced has nothing to do with global warming or its denial. They are not talking about global warming or climate change here, they are talking about the possible relation between solar activity and short term REGIONAL weather. Apparently they see some possible correlations. So for example a correlation between high solar activity and milder winters in New York or low solar activity and colder winters in new York and warmer winters in Europe.

    Global average climate change however is not believed to be related to solar activity. Indeed, even if it is true and there is a correlation between solar activity and regional weather patters the bottom line is present day global warming is very real and it is almost entirely due to man made activity. So yes, I agree with you and you are correct.
    I keep my 2 feet on the ground, and my head in the twilight zone.

  5. #15
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
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    Not looking at the start of the scale where the "lag" is just one or 2 years, the middle almost follows the minute rise in solar output, but the end is totally off the scale, since 1980 we see a downward trend in solar output and a very sharp rise in the global temperature.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

  6. #16
    Conch Master W7XF's Avatar
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    Another day with 24 sunspots. Something tells me 2m will be better than 20 today.
    Encrypt everything. Even if you have nothing to hide. It increases the noise floor.

  7. #17
    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
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    Muf here 20.18 MHz, 20 open.quick spin of the Ft 2000 D delivered wall to wall stations USA-Ukraine for starters and lots more.
    All on the OCF FD-4 from Fritzel at 45 feet above ground.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

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