A New Dalton Minimum?

[NQ6U]

Looks like we may be facing another "Little Ice Age," similar to the one that occurred in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. If this is true, the overall ramifications of such a thing for society as a whole are not good. The most important thing, though, is that us hams will experience much poorer propagation conditions until it passes. Unfortunately, since the last Dalton Minimum lasted forty years, I imagine that many of us Islanders won't be around to see the end of it.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/2...is-shaping-up/

[PA5COR]

Since the temperatures since the start of the last century went up by more as 2 degrees it might even be good.
Higher bands, i already concentrated on 160 and 80/40.
20 is open in the daytime, and better antenna's give you an edge now, and in case of a reasonable max, a better edge.

[N1LAF]

This sounds all too familiar...
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthre...l=1#post272508
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthre...l=1#post272512
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthre...l=1#post191085
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthre...l=1#post161441
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthre...ll=1#post54564
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthre...ll=1#post27811

Besides, I didn't want to disappoint Adam for not taking this opportunity to post...
;)

[WØTKX]

Well gee whiz, I guess the new topic should be deleted?

[NQ6U]

Well gee whiz, I guess the new topic should be deleted?

Ain't gonna bother me none if'n y' does.

[N1LAF]

Five years ago (or more) I posted the possibility of a Dalton-like minimum approaching on the Zed, only to be, basically, laughed at. All those posts are log gone from the deletster over there, but I was not criticized here for making these posts.

[PA5COR]

We can differ in opinion, but the reality is we really don't know, do we?
As i wrote be4 we study this for 400 years from the 4.5 billion years the earth is old.

We don't know how many cycles there might be or that this is just a small dip and the next one moght be a lot better, we can know if we look back at this in 25 years time, but then i'm history if nature does it's thing at the average age of a man here at 79.
I'm not laughing at your opinion, your's might be just as right as my opinion is, history will prove who was right ;)

[N1LAF]

We can differ in opinion, but the reality is we really don't know, do we?
As i wrote be4 we study this for 400 years from the 4.5 billion years the earth is old.

We don't know how many cycles there might be or that this is just a small dip and the next one moght be a lot better, we can know if we look back at this in 25 years time, but then i'm history if nature does it's thing at the average age of a man here at 79.
I'm not laughing at your opinion, your's might be just as right as my opinion is, history will prove who was right ;)

I hear what you are saying, but consider the graphic below, there is a significant minimum about every 200 years, not exact, but close enough to give a high probability of a prolonged minimum during now.


By looking at cycles before and during the Dalton minimum, there is a strong correlation. See the graphic below (from Carl's link)



For FYI, the sun has been spotless for five straight days

[PA5COR]

I saw the graphs, and the minimums before, and if that should be another minimum, my low band antenna's will see overtime.
But then, we won't know for sure in another 25 or 50 years won't we, long after we're gone.

For the time being i gave up on this cycle 24, and concentrated for the low bands, i can get on any frequency from 160 - .70 meterss, but i build my setup as you can find on the antenna section here for the low bands.

Back to C.W. maybe, or digital modes... but then i love SSB/AM...

[n2ize]

I hear what you are saying, but consider the graphic below, there is a significant minimum about every 200 years, not exact, but close enough to give a high probability of a prolonged minimum during now.

Be careful when you use the term "probability" in this context.. There is a huge difference between intuitive probability versus probability based on mathematical analysis. As far as whether or not there will be a "minimum" the answer is not probabilistic at all. Either there will be or their won't be.