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Thread: deVries 205 year solar cycle upon us

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    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
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    deVries 205 year solar cycle upon us

    In addition to the 11 year sunspot cycle, there are two other short cycles that are picked up by scientific analysis. It is suggested that low solar cycle 24 is the result of being at the low end of the de Vries cycle. The last minimum of this magnitude was the Dalton minimum, and that was 205 years ago.


    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/0...cle-24-update/

    You can see that cycles 22 and 23 is similar to cycles 3 and 4 - just before the Dalton Minimum.

    The next previous incident of the 205 de Vries cycle was at the beginning of the Maunder Minimum. The Maunder minimum must have coincided with both the de Vries cycle minimum and another longer wave cycle. What is happening now only occurs every 205 years.

    In the 14C record, which extends back for 11500 years, the principal periodicity determined by frequency analysis is that of the 205-year de Vries cycle, though the 2300-year Hallstatt cycle is also present (Beer 2000). The de Vries cycle is also prominent in the 10Be record, which Clilverd et al. do not exploit. Over the last decade, 10Be abundances have been measured in ice cores from Greenland, yielding a proxy record that so far extends back for 50000 years (see figure 1b). Statistical analysis of this rich data set (Wagner et al. 2001) reveals a significant peak in the power spectrum at a 205-year period that is definitely solar in origin (see figure 2).
    http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/p.../aag_45206.htm

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    Pope Carlo l NQ6U's Avatar
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    Very interesting, but false. The real reason Cycle 24 is doing so poorly is that, after 40+ years of saying I was going to do it, I finally got my ticket last year. So, of course it will be another 200 years before propagation picks up again.
    All the world’s a stage, but obviously the play is unrehearsed and everybody is ad-libbing his lines. Maybe that’s why it’s hard to tell if we’re living in a tragedy or a farce.

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    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
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    NASA's Dr. Hathaway says a Dalton-like minimum is possible

    Most solar physicists do not think anything that odd is going on with the Sun. With the recent burst of sunspots, “I don’t see we’re going into that,” Dr. Hathaway said last week.

    Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible, Dr. Hathaway said. (The minimums are named after scientists who helped identify them: Edward W. Maunder and John Dalton.)

    David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala

    Is the Sun Missing Its Spots?
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/sc...spot.html?_r=2

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    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ6BSO View Post
    Very interesting, but false. The real reason Cycle 24 is doing so poorly is that, after 40+ years of saying I was going to do it, I finally got my ticket last year. So, of course it will be another 200 years before propagation picks up again.
    Why do you say it's false? What proof do you have to counter this?
    never mind...

  5. #5
    Pope Carlo l NQ6U's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by N1LAF View Post
    Why do you say it's false? What proof do you have to counter this?
    Read my post again--it's a joke!
    All the world’s a stage, but obviously the play is unrehearsed and everybody is ad-libbing his lines. Maybe that’s why it’s hard to tell if we’re living in a tragedy or a farce.

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    Long-term prediction of solar activity – a discussion

    More...

    Article first published online: 8 APR 2004
    DOI: 10.1046/j.1468-4004.2003.45206_1.x
    Astronomy & Geophysics

    Volume 45, Issue 2, page 2.06, April 2004

    In the 14C record, which extends back for 11500 years, the principal periodicity determined by frequency analysis is that of the 205-year de Vries cycle, though the 2300-year Hallstatt cycle is also present (Beer 2000). The de Vries cycle is also prominent in the 10Be record, which Clilverd et al. do not exploit. Over the last decade, 10Be abundances have been measured in ice cores from Greenland, yielding a proxy record that so far extends back for 50000 years (see figure 1b). Statistical analysis of this rich data set (Wagner et al. 2001) reveals a significant peak in the power spectrum at a 205-year period that is definitely solar in origin (see figure 2).


    http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/p.../aag_45206.htm

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    Orca Whisperer N1LAF's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ6BSO View Post
    Read my post again--it's a joke!
    Ah.. got it...
    The sun is out to punish you...
    So what did you do??

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    Pope Carlo l NQ6U's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by N1LAF View Post
    Ah.. got it...
    The sun is out to punish you...
    So what did you do??
    I'm not sure but I think the universe hates me. Luna is mooning me constantly.
    All the world’s a stage, but obviously the play is unrehearsed and everybody is ad-libbing his lines. Maybe that’s why it’s hard to tell if we’re living in a tragedy or a farce.

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    Orca Whisperer PA5COR's Avatar
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    Thanks for nothing, what did WE do to suffer this?



    Quote Originally Posted by KJ6BSO View Post
    I'm not sure but I think the universe hates me. Luna is mooning me constantly.
    "If the Republicans will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop
    telling the truth about them." - Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)
    “I’m not liberal/conservative, I’m anti-idiotarian.”
    At some point in the last 20 years, the left moved to the center, and the right moved into a mental institution

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    Lord of the Flies kb2crk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ6BSO View Post
    Very interesting, but false. The real reason Cycle 24 is doing so poorly is that, after 40+ years of saying I was going to do it, I finally got my ticket last year. So, of course it will be another 200 years before propagation picks up again.
    that explains it all. all this work on antennas and for naught because you pissed the sun off....


    a yankee living in the hind end of the bible belt
    some people are like slinkys, not really good for anything, but still bring a smile to your face when you push them down the stairs.

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