24.1 C in the south of the Netherlands 28 C... Weird.
Should be around 15 to 17 C now, summer thinks different.
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24.1 C in the south of the Netherlands 28 C... Weird.
Should be around 15 to 17 C now, summer thinks different.
10" of snow just SW of KRIC, 1" - 3" more to follow. Pics of the snow on a table out in the clear:
Attachment 16006
Attachment 16007
Looks like a birthday cake! :icon_smile:
We got about 4 inches in total. I didn't expect anything until tonight or tomorrow though.
Surprise!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5lB...ature=youtu.be
Yer silly!
I stopped in Newport, Tn to visit family. Took the scenic route through the Smokeys, bad idea at the tail end of a blizzard/storm that the NC guvnah declared an emergency, and I am driving a uhaul, with my harley on a trailer over the mountains. Shitty winter weather can now kiss my ass! I had no idea about a major storm. My 2m walkie talkie batteries are dead, and I rarely find a chatty open carrier repeater friendly to visitors.Quote:
Originally Posted by KG4CGC
Tingle in my bones just thinking bout the weather...
About a month/5 weeks ago I took the Blue Ridge Parkway from 215 into Cherokee. There were a couple of parts where there was snow on the shoulders and icicles on the rock walls. It starts early up there and I've seen some pictures from Mt. Mitchell from volunteer Parkway workers. The area is covered in feet, feet of snow.Quote:
Originally Posted by suddenseer
Just the first days colder, a few degrees under 0 C in the nights, around 0 daytime, sunday the new warm front will cme dumping snow first then temps back up to 7 C...
Regional RhetoricI don't know where you reside but, where I live, around this time of year, the local weather-caster/Meteorologist start up with this "White Christmas" weather forecast bull crap.
Let me tell you why, "The White Christmas" dream is really a nightmare.
A few years back, we had a snowfall leading up to and on X-mas Day covering the Mid-west, the Middle Atlantic states, East Coast and, New England; Air Traffic was snarled with countless delays and canceled flights.
Driving to see relatives locally was almost like being on a Billiards Table with hundreds of accidents and fender-benders.
Do they dream of "White Christmas" in Southern California, Arizona, Florida?
Does Europe give a flop about Bing Crosby, the movie named, "Holiday Inn" or that song, "Dreaming of a White Christmas"?
I've now found it best, when I watch the local news programs, to MUTE the weather forecaster on my favorite channel; all she does is drone on over and over about numbers that are self-explanatory on the TV screen and, she throws the 'White Christmas' crap in there.
/click mute
.
If we get once every 10 - 15 year a snowed day on Christmas we can be happy.
Just ad our first dusting and till after 31st December temps are back up to 7 -11 C... at 53N ... but sea climate.
Nope i don't do Xmas what became the eat all you can and spend all you can fake fest i cannot care about.
I rather see a mild winter which saves on heating costs, but we can get brutal winters here.
We'll see what January/February will bring if we get an early SSW we can get hit bad.
all is pointing to that, so having 4 new all weather tires under the new car might have been a good idea.
Well, figure it like this. The song "White Christmas" was written to romanticize the times long before there were airports, air travel, cars, etc. Travel in winter involved hitching the horses to the sleigh and then traveling down the road to the neighboring farm where you go together with a few locals to celebrate the holiday. (or for non-Cheechakos maybe hitching the dog team to the sled or putting on the snow shoes and walking). Of course those folks who lived then probably considered it a PITA to travel through snow as well. But it's human nature to romanticize things when we look into that mirror to the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by koØm
Same basic patterns here. Often we get very cold weather in November and early December. Then as we get close to winter and Christmastime things tend to warm up considerably for anywhere from at least a week to a month before we see a return to something that once again resembles winter weather. Although there are occaisional exceptions. Like a few years when it stayed cold and snowy from November till April. Most of the time however we rarely see a white Xmas.Quote:
Originally Posted by PA5COR
You have a much better chance than I do of a white christmas. Here in Georgia it is almost always a wet christmas....Quote:
Originally Posted by n2ize
Inches of rain. 50º Merry Christmas.
Attachment 16020
I did a load of bleachables today, that is white as I will get spending my first 4th, 5th Christmas in Fla. I am getting a nice tan riding around on the Harley down here. I am not the big white guy much these days.
The song "White Christmas" was written by Irving Berlin in 1942.Quote:
Originally Posted by n2ize
Yeah, I know that. True it was written by Berlin in modern times. But it was written with the idea of bringing forth imagery and a sense of Christmases of old (pre- 20th century Christmases) particularly in rural areas where you just might need to hitch the horse to the sleigh if you planned to travel. The song may be fairly modern but the sentiments of the song take us to a snow covered landscape in days long gone.Quote:
Originally Posted by KC2KFC
Because it was easier to pull a sleigh through snow that a wagon through mud. It also gave everyone a sense and look of cleanliness vs being covered in mud up to your hip and there was no telling how much actual shit was in that mud.Quote:
Originally Posted by n2ize
We just came through one of the worst but briefest windstorms since 2006.On Dec. 20 the storm clocked at some locations at 145 km per hour left 330,000 households on Vancouver Island and on the lower Mainland of BC without power.I lost power for 12 hours and there are some people who will still be in the dark through Christmas! A lot of fallen trees have done incredible damage to the power infrastructure on Vancouver Island......and 0% chance for a white Christmas which really is a good thing!
Merry Christmas to all! :peace:
Sun is out, 7 C till at least 4th of January rising to 9 C.
Green Xmas it is then,( AGAIN AS USUAL)
We got mud.
Cloudy, 8 C no branches moving, high pressure area till end of the year so warmer as normal.
Get off my lawn.....Quote:
Originally Posted by KG4CGC
The SSW is looking more likely, and most of the time, produces bitter cold winters for eastern US and Europe.Quote:
Originally Posted by PA5COR
Joe Bastardi has been predicting a colder winter since August. (https://www.weatherbell.com/)
Good discussion on SSW and the polar vortex here: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/...may-affect-us/
Joe Bastardi has been predicting the winter of the century/doom/death for the last 12 years,and failed all the time..just as his prediction we would get back into another ice age since 2014....
Fox climate denier par excellence... https://www.skepticalscience.com/one...-bastardi.html
It all depends on how the SSW runs, and where the cold reservoirs end up,mostly if the USA gets bad cold we get a normal winter, or the split should also be above the EU, then we can get a bad winter.
Last year SWW made February and the start of March colder as usual here and caused the "beast of the East" problems in the EU and specially UK through the lake effect dumped snow in the UK.
Cold eastern wind over the relative warm channel/North Sea caused massive dumps of snow in the UK and we got our share here as well.
After that we had a scorcher of a summer....
Till now December was much too warm, one little snow dump that was gone in 12 hours, and up to the 4th of January the same, after that the bets are off.
January and February are the coldest months here, so i do expect some cold to pop in later in January.
Let's keep the political nonsense out of the discussion, this is not the place for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by PA5COR
I came across Bastardi's forecasts last winter, and he was dead-on accurate in predicting big snow storms along the east coast. Last last Jan/early Feb, there was a big snow storm in Europe, he said that storm will result in a big east coast storm. I counted the days, and on the tenth day, we did have a big storm. Last Aug, he predicted a cold, dry winter for the east coast, when the others were predicting warmer than normal. The SSW that was not foreseen, will probably increase the precipitation along the east coast, but as you know, SSW's are not yet well understood. Slide 16 from this NOAA presentation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../mjoupdate.pdf, has the GFS MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) in line with Bastardi's earlier prediction, with phase 6 going to extremes. Phase 7 and 8 is what to watch for, as timing in the coldest part of winter. The east coast (US) and western Europe is in the same situation in this scenario. The SSW will make things interesting. Please keep us posted with your weather events.
Alright, help me out here. The SSW? Whuut?
Sudden Stratospheric WarmingQuote:
Originally Posted by WZ7U
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learnin...pheric-warming
(6 to 31 miles)Quote:
What is an SSW?
The term SSW refers to what we observe - rapid warming (up to about 50 *°C in just a couple of days) in the stratosphere, between 10 km and 50 km up.
Edited to add: https://www.metric-conversions.org/
Well shit, I just learned something.
Just proves the old saying that you are never to old to learn....:snicker:
Quote:
Originally Posted by WZ7U
Nothing political in my post, just real facts, even a broke clock is twice right a day... but that does not mean it is a good clock.
Up to the first decade in January not much change, too warm for the time of the year, and dry.
High pressure area still dominating the weather here, enough snow in the Alp regions in Switzerland etc though.
7 to 10 C here, cloudy but dry now.
https://www.buienradar.nl/weer/Sneek...47063/14daagse 14 day forecast for my region in the Netherlands.
Any effects of the SSWE will be after 2 or 3 weeks time .
Quote:
Originally Posted by N1LAF
Even that 'fact' can be wrong... when you have a 24 hour military clock ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by PA5COR
Could this be the calm before an active winter season?
For the curious (and not too old to learn), I find this good reading, and what we may expect in the near future.
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
68 F this morning in south/central Georgia going up to 75 F and rain for the next few days.....
Less cold in the arctic, less cover of sea ice there, warmer sea temperatures, will influence weather, slowing down the jetstream, and make it wander more.
As we can see with the SSWE where extreme cold temperatures can go down to Florida, or let it snow in Egypt and the Arabic countries...
At the same time North Finland, Sweden, Alaska etc see higher temperatures as in spring...
The current SSWE will influence the weather in 14 days or so, depending where the cold air is pushed to, and depending on blockages and lower or blocked jetstream can linger quite long.
I looked at some models trying to predict where the colder air will end up, but the models are now totally disagreeing with each other, so we just have to wait.
Looking ahead 5 days is reliable, 5 to 10 days is a trend, further ahead is estimated guesswork, further ahead is underbelly feelings.
One small change in the chaotic weather system will overthrow every prediction further as 10 days ahead.
So,sorry if i can only laugh at Joe Bastardi predicting the winter of death/doom since 2012 every year in the UK tabloids and "news" channels for here and be proved wrong every year.
It is winter, we get frost, snow and that is expected, how much? only time will tell, see me back in April ;)
Till now December was too warm, too dry, almost no frost, and 1//2 inch snow that lasted all of 12 hours.
But there is still January and February to go, though the first decade in January is more of the same.
And, although seldom, we have the odd cold winters here, once every 10 to 15 years or so, looking back since 1750 when the first unbroken weather data was noted down, more and more seldom though.
Well, Cor, I guess that is what happens when you listen to tabloids rather than direct source. Since I am listening to the direct source, I haven't heard anything dramatic. I get a thorough explanation of the MJO, what phase we are in, what could happen next, and why. There is a lot of discussion on 'analog' years, otherwise known as similar years of same patterns.
Predictions (US):NOAA - Generally warm to neutral.
Joe at Weatherbell - Long cold winter
We will know who was closer at the end of winter.
Things to look at: AO(Arctic Oscillation) - negative for colder/stormier
SSW and the Polar vortex
MJO Phases.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) - negative for colder/stormier
Either way, my shovels and ice breakers are ready, as is my snow thrower. And a healthy stock of firewood.
56ºF
99% humidity
Barometric pressure @30.01in.
Wind NE @2mph
Dew point 55º
Visibility 0.6 miles
Cloudy and foggy
We're about 10* less here but similar in all other aspects.
You guessed wrong, tabloids i read for fun online and wonder why people read them.
My sources are the Royal Dutch Meteorologic Institute, ( KNMI) and a series of other sources, NOAA, professional meteorologic forums etc.
As shown for the 4 season tires of the new car, i do prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
4 centuries ago the Netherlands was the first country that kept weather data on daily basis till today.
The KNMI was founded in January 1854, we can use the data from 4 centuries to compare.
Including temperature, rainfall, sun hours, and sea level.
Mind you the season might be totally different for the USA and Europe.
Bastardi predictions were for Europe blistering cold December and lots of snow, didn 't happen, so he's already blown it there.
Comparing similar yeears forget the climate changed since those years, and can only give a very limited sample.
As stated above, a relative small change anywhere can totally change the pattern and outcome of every "prediction"' .
It is a chaotic system predictions over a 14 day period are already dodgy, longer predictions are gueswork, and if you like Bastardi predicts for every winter the "winter of death/doom" there is a change you might get lucky, till now he failed miserably.
As stated, a stopped clock is right 2 times a day, still a failed clock.
Quote:
Originally Posted by N1LAF
We shall see.... in March.
The Weather Channel now supports the Eastern US Colder winter prediction
60ºF
77% Humidity
Barometric pressure 30.15in
Wind NNE @3mph
Dew point 52º
Visibility 9.3 miles
Sunny with some high clouds