Solar minimum of 2008-2009: Century-class event

[N1LAF]

As most everyone knows, especially those on HF experiencing poor reception, we are in a very deep solar minimum, being described as a century-class event (Link) (http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=01&month=08&year=2009) as confirmed by NASA (Link) (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm).

Other notable lows include:
- 50 year low in solar pressure
- 12 year low in solar irradiance
- 55 year low in solar radio emmissions

So what is in the future? We may be able to see what the future brings by using hindcast of past data and observations.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/800px-Sunspot_Numbers.png

We can see here that there was a huge minimum in the 1600 to 1700 known as the Maunder Minimum, just after 1800 - known as the Dalton Minimum, then in 1900 there was a dip, but not deep enough to warrant a designation. Could there be a pattern of deep minimums every 200 years (approximate 1600, 1800, 2000)?

Is this cycle periodic? Another plot based on changes in C14 levels may give us a clue.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/73/Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png/800px-Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png
(BP = Before Present)

We see other incidences of minimums - Sporer Minimum, Wolf Minimum, and the Oort Minimum. We also see what is referred to as the Medieval Maximum (a period of above normal temperature), and what is being referred to as the Modern Maximum.

If one tries to visually 'average' this cycle as a wave, we can see a cycle that rises to the Medieval Maximum then bottoms out the Sporer and Maunder Minimum, and then back to the Modern maximum. Notice that the deep minimums are still about 200 years apart, more or less.

By projecting from past cycle data, me may anticipate what the future may bring. Are we heading into a protracted minimum? What is the impact on Amateur Radio (HF reception)? Is this actually a good thing or bad thing?

Here is an item that discusses the possibility of a Dalton Minimum Repeat (Link) (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/28/nasa-now-saying-that-a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-possible/)

"Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible, Dr. Hathaway said. (The minimums are named after scientists who helped identify them: Edward W. Maunder and John Dalton.)". David Hathaway, a scientist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/scien ... .html?_r=2 (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2)

[ad4mg]

Bummer. This indicates I'll probably be dead before we have another decent cycle.

[N8YX]

So...what would be the cause of the sine wave?

That's indicative of a cyclical event which would have to be somewhat local in scale...far too short in duration to be caused by extra-system influences, such as the positioning of the sun relative to the galactic plane.

Jovian gravitational influences, perhaps?

[N8YX]

Bummer. This indicates I'll probably be dead before we have another decent cycle.
But 160-40 will continue to kick azz... :neener:

[N1LAF]

There is a lot about the sun we do not know.

We do know that the sun is getting warmer. It was about 10% cooler 3 billion years ago, if I remember right. There could be internal cycles galactic influences, we don't know all the causes/effects, but we certainly can feel them.

[ad4mg]

Bummer. This indicates I'll probably be dead before we have another decent cycle.
But 160-40 will continue to kick azz... :neener:
I need to get my 160 meter inverted vee back up for winter. I'm already decent on 75/80 with the dipole, but it needs to go back up to it's proper height of 65' - 70'. 40 meters has left a lot to be desired the last few months.

[ad4mg]

There is a lot about the sun we do not know.

We do know that the sun is getting warmer. It was about 10% cooler 3 billion years ago, if I remember right. There could be internal cycles galactic influences, we don't know all the causes/effects, but we certainly can feel them.
Amateur radio forums. The universe can hold only so much hot air ...

Just thinking out loud again. It's been a while since I have ... :mrgreen:

[N8YX]

40 meters has left a lot to be desired the last few months.
One guy operating there during the DE QSO Party was pinning my gauge at 6PM ... :shock:

[KG4CGC]

Carl Reiner is like what? 150 now?

[N1LAF]

Using the published sunspot data and comparing it to 1913 minimum, it looks like this minimum will exceed that of 1913 in duration and depth. Here is a seven year comparison when both cycles dropped below 50

[N1LAF]

The next cycle after the minimum of 1913 was more intense than the previous cycle - maybe cycle 24 will not be so bad after all.

[N1LAF]

However, the long range trend may have the cycle going in the less intensive direction

[KB3LAZ]

So who was tracking the solar cycle in the 17th century? ;)

[kc7jty]

The monks.
Hey don't feel bad, there's no beer on the sun.

[PA5COR]

No, actually it is easy to find it:


In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo Galilei (or was it Thomas Harriot?) made the first European observations of Sunspots. Continuous daily observations were started at the Zurich Observatory in 1849 and earlier observations have been used to extend the records back to 1610. The sunspot number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual sunspots.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
And Johann Goldsmid (1587-1616, a.k.a. Fabricius) in Holland.

In 1608, Dutch eyeglass maker, Hans Lippershey offered a new device to the government for military use. This new device made use of two glass lenses in a tube to magnify distant objects. He may not have invented the telescope (in fact, at least two other Dutch opticians were also working on the idea at the time), but Hans Lippershey has been credited with its invention. He, at least, applied for the patent for it first.

But, that was all a bit before our time... :snicker:

As soon as he heard about the wonderous device coming out of the Netherlands, Galileo Galilei was fascinated. He began constructing telescopes, himself, before ever seeing one in person. By 1609, he was ready for the next inevitable step. He began using telescopes to observe the heavens, becoming the first astronomer to do so.

Christiaan Huygens, FRS (English pronunciation: /?ha???nz/, Dutch: [?hœy??ns]; 14 April 1629 – 8 July 1695) was a prominent Dutch mathematician, astronomer, physicist, horologist, and writer of early science fiction. His work included early telescopic studies elucidating the nature of the rings of Saturn and the discovery of its moon Titan, investigations and inventions related to time keeping and the pendulum clock, and studies of both optics and the centrifugal force.

Christian Huygens ( Dutch) achieved note for his argument that light consists of waves,[1], now known as the Huygens–Fresnel principle, which became instrumental in the understanding of wave-particle duality. He generally receives credit for his discovery of the centrifugal force, the laws for collision of bodies, for his role in the development of modern calculus and his original observations on sound perception (see Repetition Pitch). Huygens is seen as the first theoritical physicist as he was the first to use formulae in physics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christiaan_Huygens

[n0eq]

However, the long range trend may have the cycle going in the less intensive direction

Very cool. So does that mean that when I check in to my
local whackercomms net repeater I still have to push
the button BEFORE I talk?


Lumpy

You played on "The Love Boat"?
Yes. White tux, huge sideburns.

http://www.LumpyMusic.com

[ki4itv]

Very cool. So does that mean that when I check in to my
local whackercomms net repeater I still have to push
the button BEFORE I talk?


Lumpy



Whackercomms are exempt from reality. Carry on as usual.

[N1LAF]

With 1818 data included, we can see an outline of a 100 year cycle, by looking at the peaks, like it was being modulated.

[W7XF]

Very cool. So does that mean that when I check in to my
local whackercomms net repeater I still have to push
the button BEFORE I talk?

Lumpy....listen carefully before you talk...make sure KA7FFF is nowhere near you before you push the PTT.

(side note for non-AZ hams: KA7FFF is ALMOST as bad as VE7KFM)

[N1LAF]

QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for almost 42 days and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.

spaceweather.com
21 AUG 2009

[N8YX]

With 1818 data included, we can see an outline of a 100 year cycle, by looking at the peaks, like it was being modulated.
What is it that's doing the modulating?

[PA5COR]

V __________ E ___________ R___________ Y *********** S __________ L _________ O _________ W ************* C _______________ W









:snicker:

We don't need no stinkin" sunspots anyway... :popcorn:

[N1LAF]

With 1818 data included, we can see an outline of a 100 year cycle, by looking at the peaks, like it was being modulated.
What is it that's doing the modulating?

87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle, named after Wolfgang Gleißberg, is thought to be an amplitude modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle (Sonnett and Finney, 1990). Braun, et al., (2005). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation


Timo Niroma:
Sunspots: The Gleissberg cycle.

A well-known cycle of about 80 years is called the Gleissberg cycle. Most often it is considered as a 78-year cycle. The limits for it are 72 and 83 years according to the Schove rules, or 6.07 and 7 Jovian years. If we make to the Elatina value (assuming it to be 78.5 (not 79) years) the same transformation (11.862/12 * x) as to the other two values, we get 77.6 years or 6.54 Jovian years. It is within the Schove 'normal' limits of 77-79 years.

Even if the data convincingly show, that the Gleissberg cycle is always between 6 1/14 and 7 Jovian years, usually between 6 1/2 and 6 2/3 Jovian years and in the average about 77.6 years, there are many researchers seeking one exact value and they are getting different results. Many of them are not satisfied with the usually referenced value of 78 years.

The Schove position is however clear (page 141): "The 78-year cycle is clearly shown since 1610 by an alternation of periods of shortening (c. 1650-1700, c. 1725-65, c. 1890-1930) and lengthening cycles (c. 1700-25, c. 1765-1810, c. 1845-90)." The periods of shortening are periods when the cycle minimum takes increasing distance from the Jovian perihelion, goes over the aphelion, and arrives again in the neighbourhood of the perihelion in n cycles and n-1 Jovian years. The periods of lengthening are periods when the cycle minimum glides slowly and oscillates near the Jovian perihelion and stops for a while at a distance of 0.8-1.7 years before the perihelion.

The 155 year cycle also shows up in these shortenings and lengthenings oscillating between 145 and 165 years or from 10.3 to 11.8 years per cycle. 155+-10 years is the distance from near-perihelion to near-perihelion or from aphelion to aphelion the exact length depending on whether more time is spent on the side of the perihelion or the aphelion. Actually the theoretical supercycle seems to be 14 Jovian years or 166.1 years, but because of other factors are also contributing to the Sun's cyclicity (Venus, Saturn, internal factors), the actual supercycle is 155.2 years for 14 cycles.

http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/gleissb.htm

[N1LAF]

The 205 year de Vries cycle

he level of cyclic magnetic activity in the Sun may well go up or down but we believe that it is not feasible to make any meaningful long-term prediction. The evidence suggests that stellar magnetic cycles are chaotic, and the difficulties of predicting chaotic behaviour are by now well known. Furthermore Clilverd et al. (2003) only consider a very limited data set. In the 14C record, which extends back for 11500 years, the principal periodicity determined by frequency analysis is that of the 205-year de Vries cycle, though the 2300-year Hallstatt cycle is also present (Beer 2000). The de Vries cycle is also prominent in the 10Be record, which Clilverd et al. do not exploit. Over the last decade, 10Be abundances have been measured in ice cores from Greenland, yielding a proxy record that so far extends back for 50000 years (see figure 1b). Statistical analysis of this rich data set (Wagner et al. 2001) reveals a significant peak in the power spectrum at a 205-year period that is definitely solar in origin (see figure 2).

http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/prod ... _45206.htm (http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/products/journals/aag/AAG_April04/aag_45206.htm)

[N1LAF]

The 2300 year Hallstatt Cycle

In a recent article (A&G 44 5.20) we discussed likely solar activity levels a century from now using a superposed epoch analysis of Hallstatt cycles evident in the 14C cosmogenic isotope series. In this issue Tobias et al. have quite reasonably indicated that it is a process fraught with uncertainties as evidence suggests that predicting stellar magnetic cycles will always pose a challenge. This reply allows us the opportunity to clarify a few points in the process we have undertaken in order to make the prediction.

The analysis we undertook on the 14C series was based on the presence of the 2300-year Hallstatt cycle in the data. This cycle can be clearly seen in the series, as well as determined by frequency analysis. However, the Hallstatt cycle itself is not used solely to predict the minimum in solar activity in 2100. The principal role of the Hallstatt cycle analysis in our paper was to determine which parts of the 14C data were influenced by solar activity and which were not.

http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/prod ... _45206.htm (http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/products/journals/aag/AAG_April04/aag_45206.htm)


Also note this from the same page...

Interestingly the superposition of four sections of 14C data shows that little of the de Vries cycle survives the averaging process, suggesting that either these cycles are not strongly phase-locked to the Grand Minimum or that the period is variable enough to average the cycles out. The cycle that does survive the superposition process is the 420-year cycle, which is why we predict a minimum 400 years or so after the Maunder Minimum. The 420-year cycle has been postulated to be associated with oscillations in the solar convective zone (Stuiver and Braziunas 1989).

The Maunder Minimum of 1650 - 1700, add in the 420 year cycle, and we are looking at 2050 to 2100.

-------
The C-14 variability and
associated Hallstatt peak maxima represent periods
of extreme states of low solar activity with
peak to peak periodicities of ~2300 years, which
are superimposed on variations as seen during the
last ?400 years, i.e. including the Maunder minimum
type variations. These are the conditions,
which have been considered for the analysis of
this work.

http://indico.nucleares.unam.mx/getFile ... r&confId=4 (http://indico.nucleares.unam.mx/getFile.py/access?contribId=1164&sessionId=40&resId=0&materialId=paper&confId=4)

[W7XF]

All I wanna know is: WHO PISSED OFF THE PROPAGATION GODDESS????????

(Although, I worked a UA9 from the pickup last night...Auroral prop tho)

[N1LAF]

Well I don't know who pissed off who, but we are entering day 44 of continuous blank sun, can the previous Cycle 23-24 minimum record of 52 days be broken?

Right now sporadic small spots may not indicate the beginning of the new cycle - previous large minimums did not have total elimination of spots.

[N1LAF]

Thread theme music...

[youtube:30xruqvq]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0kypyGSKsE[/youtube:30xruqvq]

[N8YX]

Jovian influence on the sun's fuel burn rate (and subsequent energy output) might be one of the short-term factors involved, but what of the much larger cycles? One wonders if there is a bit of as-yet-undetected eccentricity to Jupiter's orbit which plays a role here...

And what of planetary alignments? Get all the biggies tugging on Sol in one direction and that's going to have an effect on the solar disc.

Given the fact that it takes a while (years, even!) for the photon energy which is generated at the sun's core to actually make it out into the corona and beyond, we may just now be witnessing the effects of events which happened some time ago.

[N1LAF]

Today we will have gone 46 consecutive days without sunspots, 6 more days to surpass the existing record for this minimum. The new minimum point may have to be recalculated (again for the forth time). Enjoy this while you can, this is a once in a lifetime occurrence.

[PA5COR]

It is a pity for the new guy;s that missed the other solar maximums.

I put up the 160 meter vertical, and the OCF works from 160 - 10.
Not without reason, i expect the conditions will stay low for years to come.

160 - 20 will be the bands to look out for, 17 and 15 will be open from time to time.
6 meters Sporadic E, 2/70 might get some added interest again, put some RF on the beams.

There is always a band open.

:cheers:

[N4VGB]

The late '50s were as good as it gets. :dance:

I'm just glad to have been around for that period, I guess once in a lifetime is about all anyone can expect. :yes:

[N1LAF]

We have two more days before the previous continuous sunspotless days for this minimum will be exceeded, and looks like we will have a record breaker. Could this be the new minimum point? How long will this last?

[PA5COR]

Your guess is as good as mine, or anyone's guess...
Even the scientists are baffled by the phenomena.

Since we only studied 400 years of sunspots, from the 5 billion or so years, we know only a extreme tiny fraction of hat happens.

Still guesswork, and remembering the better days here :(


We have two more days before the previous continuous sunspotless days for this minimum will be exceeded, and looks like we will have a record breaker. Could this be the new minimum point? How long will this last?

[N1LAF]

The sunspotless streak has been broken by sunspot# 1025, which is already fading.

[PA5COR]

More a sun pimple then... :roll:

[N1LAF]

Here we go again... Spotless sun - day 8

[ki4itv]

Still Waiting.

[N1LAF]

After 9 days of some sunspot actions, we are back to 0 sunspots, 1 day

[N8YX]

Someone best pay the bill. I'm getting a little weary of "...no conditions...". :roll:

[W2NAP]

Someone best pay the bill. I'm getting a little weary of "...no conditions...". :roll:

i think its gonna be like this for quite some time

[N1LAF]

Just when the experts thought the minimum hit bottom last year, this year proves to be even deeper of a minimum. Last year the sun was spotless for 73% of the year, this year it is closer to 79%. On the zed I suggested that this would be an extended minimum, could be something that rivals the Dalton Minimum, but was put down for that thinking. The trends and data is in my favor, will it go as deep as Dalton, Sporer? Maunder? Who knows, but could be 30 to 40 years this time.

Dalton: 30 years (1790 to 1820)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/400px-Sunspot_Numbers.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

Maunder Minimum: 70 years (1645 to 1715)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg/500px-Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_minimum

Sporer: 90 years (1420 to 1570)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg/500px-Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sp%C3%B6rer_Minimum

Wolf Minimum: 60 years (1280 to 1340)

Oort Minimum: 40 years (1010 to 1050)

[N1LAF]

Guess work...

The current solar cycle, numbered 23, began in 1996, and was expected to reach minimum and transition to solar cycle 24 in January 2007
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2009/s ... r_min.html (http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2009/sci-techs/3615solar_min.html)


"History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006 ... arning.htm (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm)


We are expecting Cycle 24 to begin in early 2008. There are divergent predictions of the strength of the cycle, we but expect it will peak around early 2012.
http://www.lowell.edu/blog/?p=39

NASA - Solar Minimum has Arrived
March 6, 2006: Every year in February, the students of Mrs. Phillips's 5th grade
class in Bishop, California, celebrate Galileo's birthday (Feb. 15th) by repeating
one of his discoveries. They prove that the sun spins."
http://www.astronomyforum.net/uk-astron ... rived.html (http://www.astronomyforum.net/uk-astronomy-forum/57014-nasa-solar-minimum-has-arrived.html)


Something strange happened on the sun last week: all the sunspots vanished. This is a sign, say scientists, that solar
minimum is coming sooner than expected.
October 18, 2004: Six ... long ... years.
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=15318


Published By
Klaus Schmidt
On: 13 January 2008 3:23 AM CET
(NASA) – NASA scientists say a new solar cycle is beginning, and this could have important repercussions for space-based technology ranging from GPS navigation to weather satellites.
But its three-day appearance January 4 through January 6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway. The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based technological society.
http://spacefellowship.com/2008/01/13/n ... lar-cycle/ (http://spacefellowship.com/2008/01/13/nasa-satellites-capture-start-of-new-solar-cycle/)