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View Full Version : Feedback requested: Vanity Callsign Predictions, including chances of assignment



KC2SYK
01-10-2022, 10:49 PM
https://vanities.k2cr.com/

Hi, all. I haven't been around here in a while, but I thought you all might have some good feedback about this site I developed.

I wanted to predict vanity assignments, so I coded this up from FCC data. Similar to AE7Q, but doing simulation of the assignments to produce a real estimate at the chances. For example, see the applications for the NR6H call (https://vanities.k2cr.com/vanity-NR6H.html). There are two applicants, with chances of assignment of 50% each.

For a more complex example, see the applications for KG6L (https://vanities.k2cr.com/vanity-KG6L.html). Several applications are excluded for various reasons. Others have chances that range from 3% to 21%. Some applicants have much lower odds than others. While most have chances around 21%, one has chances around 3% due to their other applied-for callsigns taking precedence.

Use cases:

- By looking at many applications, you can see patterns and plan a more successful application.
- If you have multiple applications pending, you can consider whether to withdraw some applications to improve your chances or to be certain of receiving a preferred callsign.
- Add up the chances of assignment for each of your applications and if they reach 100%, you can choose to stop making further applications.
- Look for callsigns that are pending but have a less-than-100% chance of being assigned, and consider putting in an application for that callsign.

Note: this was all doable thanks to code from the fcc-db (https://github.com/QueuingKoala/fcc-db) project to pull FCC data and load it into a sqlite data store.

Please see the FAQ (https://vanities.k2cr.com/faq.html) and let me know if I can clarify at all.

Thanks and 73
K2CR

W3WN
01-11-2022, 07:55 AM
Didn't we just see this very thread Over Yonder?

KC2SYK
01-11-2022, 08:52 AM
Yup. Didn't get any feedback on qrz. I wonder if I didn't explain things well, or too much navel-gazing going on there.

PA5COR
01-11-2022, 10:23 AM
Bit more simple here look in database if call is free claim it online wait for papers to arrive or online if accepted, done.

KC2SYK
01-11-2022, 10:49 AM
Bit more simple here look in database if call is free claim it online wait for papers to arrive or online if accepted, done.

The complicated bit here comes in when there are multiple people that apply for the same callsign on the same day. That's how we end up with the competition.

PA5COR
01-11-2022, 02:40 PM
Here who claims first gets the callsign.
all automated with time slot.

W3WN
01-11-2022, 04:11 PM
Yup. Didn't get any feedback on qrz. I wonder if I didn't explain things well, or too much navel-gazing going on there.
OK.

You explained things pretty well, I think. Sorry, I haven't looked into it... too much like work right now.

KC2SYK
01-11-2022, 04:36 PM
No sweat. Thanks for taking a look.

NQ6U
01-12-2022, 07:02 PM
Might be a little too esoteric for most hams, Chris.

KC2SYK
01-12-2022, 07:44 PM
Thanks, Carl. Maybe so.

N8YX
01-13-2022, 01:29 PM
Put certain "legacy" callsigns into the mix as a test of the algorithm.

I can think of a few that'll short the CPU right out. :rotflol:

KC2SYK
01-13-2022, 02:11 PM
There's been lots of applications for invalid calls. Here's some from this week:

https://vanities.k2cr.com/app-0009861727.html

https://vanities.k2cr.com/app-0009856390.html