The tech bubble insanity in the Bay Area may ready to pop at any time.

[KE6KA]

It will be interesting to watch if it happens. Most of the Bay Area has turned into a very expensive wreck. At the very least all those parasitic real estate investors aren't going to be able to rent their crappy properties for $3,000 a month.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/03/24/san-jose-and-oakland-area-job-markets-tumble/

[n6hcm]

sorry, but $3k/month really *is* for a crappy property. anywhere you'd actually want to live will cost at least 2x that now.

[KD8TUT]

It will be interesting to watch if it happens. Most of the Bay Area has turned into a very expensive wreck. At the very least all those parasitic real estate investors aren't going to be able to rent their crappy properties for $3,000 a month.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/03/24/san-jose-and-oakland-area-job-markets-tumble/

In 2001 I had an offer to relocate for a job in Cupertino. Took a pass because one of my cousins was out there working for HP and was paying $1600.00 a month for a studio apartment.

Was a stutter step in my career because I had been "groomed" to take that position. So I needed to make a few changes. Still- I consider it a bullet that was missed.

A million dollar mortgage seems to me to be a special kind of hell.

[KE6KA]

Hopefully it will not affect the rest of the economy here. Being in Sacramento, there will be some impact. I've noticed the IT related job postings slow down last fall. Over the last month the number of job postings has dropped substantially.
I'm in the process of making a career transition to GIS. That is still tech related, but I think it is far enough removed from the economic roller coaster the IT sector goes through out here, and at some point I can finally find a job that isn't a six month contract.

[WX7P]

In 2001 I had an offer to relocate for a job in Cupertino. Took a pass because one of my cousins was out there working for HP and was paying $1600.00 a month for a studio apartment.

Was a stutter step in my career because I had been "groomed" to take that position. So I needed to make a few changes. Still- I consider it a bullet that was missed.

A million dollar mortgage seems to me to be a special kind of hell.

Actually, if you had gotten into property then, you would be sitting pretty right now. The pricing in Cupertino in 2001 was about 1/3 of what it is right now. Might have been less.

My parent's house is Fremont is worth a ghastly amount of money considering they only paid 15K for it in 1960. They don't care, they just live in it.

High prices have been a reality in the Bay Area for a long time. I remember being aghast at paying 112,500 for this: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3148-Wildwood-Dr-Concord-CA-94518/18339947_zpid/ in 1986. I sold it for 185,000 in 1992. You see what's worth now.

My point is people in the area have always found ways to adapt. My parent's new neighbor is some 30 something who got a 'deal' at 765,000. He's a teacher and his wife is an admin with the school district. Neither is from a rich family, they had a house somewhere else in Fremont that they sold to get into this one. Their mortgage is probably crazy, but so was mine (comparatively speaking) in 1986 if you consider percentage of income. The house will never do a Modesto or Nevada price dump, so they'll be ok if they stay in for the duration.

I don't think the tech bubble will ever completely burst in the Bay Area. There's too many resources and frankly, the types that run those companies don't want to live in North Carolina or Texas.

[WX7P]

Hopefully it will not affect the rest of the economy here. Being in Sacramento, there will be some impact. I've noticed the IT related job postings slow down last fall. Over the last month the number of job postings has dropped substantially.

I'm in the process of making a career transition to GIS. That is still tech related, but I think it is far enough removed from the economic roller coaster the IT sector goes through out here, and at some point I can finally find a job that isn't a six month contract.

I hope you find something.

I just drove by my old house off Norwood near Rio Linda last week (did you go to the Loomis flea market?). It's now worth approx. double what I sold it for in 2012. AARGH! Wish that would happen with the Illinois property....(fat chance)

[KD8TUT]

Actually, if you had gotten into property then, you would be sitting pretty right now. The pricing in Cupertino in 2001 was about 1/3 of what it is right now. Might have been less.

My parent's house is Fremont is worth a ghastly amount of money considering they only paid 15K for it in 1960. They don't care, they just live in it.

High prices have been a reality in the Bay Area for a long time. I remember being aghast at paying 112,500 for this: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3148-Wildwood-Dr-Concord-CA-94518/18339947_zpid/ in 1986. I sold it for 185,000 in 1992. You see what's worth now.

My point is people in the area have always found ways to adapt. My parent's new neighbor is some 30 something who got a 'deal' at 765,000. He's a teacher and his wife is an admin with the school district. Neither is from a rich family, they had a house somewhere else in Fremont that they sold to get into this one. Their mortgage is probably crazy, but so was mine (comparatively speaking) in 1986 if you consider percentage of income. The house will never do a Modesto or Nevada price dump, so they'll be ok if they stay in for the duration.

I don't think the tech bubble will ever completely burst in the Bay Area. There's too many resources and frankly, the types that run those companies don't want to live in North Carolina or Texas.

On paper that sounds nice and would be great if I had accumulated enough stock options... etc.

But in reality, I'd still be paying on the mortgage from 2001 where today I'm not.

So from my perspective is was a better decision.

[KE6KA]

I don't think the tech bubble will ever completely burst in the Bay Area. There's too many resources and frankly, the types that run those companies don't want to live in North Carolina or Texas.

It can burst. It has done so twice in the past. One was before the internet came into the public sphere. Actually, it was more of a slump for the tech sector because people weren't speculating on it. The dotcom bust was bad. Really bad. There was quite an exodus when all the tech workers who were laid off ran out of money. That took about three months. Quite a few came here to Sacramento for a cheaper cost of living, but that didn't work for most of them either. The rental vacancy rate went down, rents doubled, and it turned out not as cheap as they thought it would be. A lot of them were from other parts of the country and just went back. << That is the reason I don't take the "California exodus" thing too seriously. Californian's typically stay. Everyone else goes back home.

[KE6KA]

I hope you find something.

I just drove by my old house off Norwood near Rio Linda last week (did you go to the Loomis flea market?). It's now worth approx. double what I sold it for in 2012. AARGH! Wish that would happen with the Illinois property....(fat chance)

I totally forgot about the Loomis Hamfest. I really haven't been very active over the past year. It has pretty much been limited to ragchewing on K6IS when I take my walks in the evening with the HT.

[WX7P]

I totally forgot about the Loomis Hamfest. I really haven't been very active over the past year. It has pretty much been limited to ragchewing on K6IS when I take my walks in the evening with the HT.

Too bad you missed it. It was almost all radios. I happened to be in the area visiting my parents in Fremont, and my brother who lives in Granite Bay. I dragged him to the flea market. He was appropriately horrified.<smirk>

[NA4BH]

Huntsville Al 1959
4 bedroom ranch $17,400

Same house 2012 sold for
$241,000

Not a bad return. Probably could have got more.

[NQ6U]

The house in which I grew up in San Mateo, CA (now considered the northern limit of Silicon Valley):

3 Bedroom post-war crackerbox, maybe 1200 sq. ft. Purchased in 1953 for $13,000. Sold in 2015 for $750,000. That's an insane amount of money for such a lousy little house in a crappy neighborhood but, man, talk about a good ROI.

[WZ7U]

While these are excellent ROI's, I have to ask how much of the increase is due to the devaluation of the dollar over time vs. actual increase in 'value' of the property. Did that come across right?

[WX7P]

While these are excellent ROI's, I have to ask how much of the increase is due to the devaluation of the dollar over time vs. actual increase in 'value' of the property. Did that come across right?

Location, location, location, Eric.

Not to one up Carl, but my parent's house is now in the 830,000 range.

I'm sure inflation has a factor, but it's really about supply and demand.

It's a combo of opportunity plus mild weather that drives up prices. I didn't realize how big a deal the weather was until I moved to an area with snow.

Snow sucks, and I'm not alone in that assessment

*Edit to add*

Your new callsign completely ROCKS. You'll be popular in the contest this weekend...

[KG4CGC]

Ft. Lauderdale FL. 1962. 2 bedroom 2 bath one car garage and on a canal. Less than $8K.
2015 this same house went on the market for $370K. That was my aunt and uncle's house.
My cousin and her husband fixed it up so to speak. You could probably mow the whole yard in 30 minutes.

Prices vary widely for the area.

[WZ7U]

Location, location, location, Eric.

Not to one up Carl, but my parent's house is now in the 830,000 range.

I'm sure inflation has a factor, but it's really about supply and demand.

It's a combo of opportunity plus mild weather that drives up prices. I didn't realize how big a deal the weather was until I moved to an area with snow.

Snow sucks, and I'm not alone in that assessment

*Edit to add*

Your new callsign completely ROCKS. You'll be popular in the contest this weekend...

For that ^^ Janet, thank you. That's why I'm waiting to get a decent antenna up by 7QP to use it. :snicker: I should go county line portable for the 7QP; on CW. (If I could only copy contest quality...) ..the real reason is I am buried in other stuff to do much to my irritation

As an aside, when my folks sold out on their Littleton, CO house in the mid 90's, they originally bought for 21K in '69 and got out of it for 200k - quite the little profit. Too bad they used up a considerable portion of that getting into something different in the next state over. When we sold our Portland, OR house (bought for 110k in the mid 90's) in 2003 we netted roughly double in that time frame alone. So I get how location and demand run prices; I was just wondering how much inflation played into it.

It's weird how housing seems to be impervious to inflation in the sense that if you have property where no one wants to be, the price doesn't change a whole lot but if you have a place where everybody wants to be, well, the sky's the limit which lends me to believe emotions are running that maybe more than reality. Friends in rural bumf#@k NE with a junk house still get taxed at around the same ridiculous value (75k) for a dilapidated house as they have been for ever. Go figure.

I dunno, I fell out of the whole home ownership thing without the likelihood of getting back into it so I really don't have a dog in the fight anymore. As it is, we're lucky to have four walls and a pot to piss in right now. Not sure I want to be saddled with a new mortgage at 54, especially with the personal employment outlook looking so vague right now. :dunno:

And yes, I tired of CO snow in '89, hence why I moved back to the place of my birth (like a salmon; upstream to spawn and die) to get away from it. Little did I realize how much that would be proven wrong from time to time in the form of freezing rain and ice. Snow would be a welcome relief instead of an ice storm. Lucky me it rains more often than not (like today - again - still...ungh)

[KC2UGV]

...
Snow sucks, and I'm not alone in that assessment
...

Depends on the person. I love the snow. But, that's because I love snow-activities: Winter camping, snowshoeing, hiking, etc.

My winter runs are some of the favorite runs too.

But, if you hole up at the first sign of snow, until spring, yeah, it makes you miserable.

[KG4CGC]

Cold weather can be painful when it sets in your bones. Then your body starts acting weird.

[WØTKX]

I'm a snowflake, so... :spin:

Our house is a mighty fine house, with a dog and cat in the yard.
And a mortgage that will be paid off about the time I retire.

Currently appraised at $430K and going up, up, up. :bbh:

My wife won't retire (probably) as soon as I can.
So we'll stay for a while mortgage free.

Before finding a place with wide hallways and no stairs.
We both like the snow just fine, and love mountains.

But we might move out of CO.
WY, MT, ID, NV, UT; maybe.

[KD8TUT]

Depends on the person. I love the snow. But, that's because I love snow-activities: Winter camping, snowshoeing, hiking, etc.

My winter runs are some of the favorite runs too.

But, if you hole up at the first sign of snow, until spring, yeah, it makes you miserable.

Yea I love the snow as well- which is why I'm on a hill, in a forest, next to Lake Michigan.

We don't have snow- it's a primary industry :)

[KG4CGC]

I'm a snowflake, so... :spin:

Our house is a mighty fine house, with a dog and cat in the yard.
And a mortgage that will be paid off about the time I retire.

Currently appraised at $430K and going up, up, up. :bbh:

My wife won't retire (probably) as soon as I can.
So we'll stay for a while mortgage free.

Before finding a place with wide hallways and no stairs.
We both like the snow just fine, and love mountains.

But we might move out of CO.
WY, MT, ID, NV, UT; maybe.

You may also consider Asheville NC as well. All 4 seasons. Nearby ski slopes. Mountains and things to do around mountains.

[WØTKX]

I love Asheville. It's been a long time, but the "vibe" is very nice.

[KG4CGC]

Then just hit 64 East and keep going until you hit the beach road.

[W3WN]

Location, location, location, Eric.

Not to one up Carl, but my parent's house is now in the 830,000 range.

I'm sure inflation has a factor, but it's really about supply and demand.
< snip >
My dad had a house built in the NNJ suburbs that we moved into in 1966. I don't know what the house cost, but when my parents sold in in 1975 subsequent to our move to EPA, it went for a touch over $30K, and he was quite happy with that.

2 days after the sales agreement was reached, the state of NJ imposed a ban on new home construction in our area due to sewage issues. Overnight, the value of the house had increased to well over $60K. I know Dad got a lot of phone calls from people (or their realtors) begging him to break the agreement and sell them the house for $75K and up. I remember him lamenting the timing -- but a deal was a deal and he stuck to it.

Out of idle curiousity, thanks to this thread, I looked up the value of that home today. (Keeping in mind that a subsequent owner added on a garage and a bedroom, so it's a little bigger than it was when we lived there). "Zillow" reports that the house last sold in 2006... for $625K, and is currently worth (in their estimate) a touch over $636K.

[WX7P]

I'm a snowflake, so... :spin:

Our house is a mighty fine house, with a dog and cat in the yard.
And a mortgage that will be paid off about the time I retire.

Currently appraised at $430K and going up, up, up. :bbh:

My wife won't retire (probably) as soon as I can.
So we'll stay for a while mortgage free.

Before finding a place with wide hallways and no stairs.
We both like the snow just fine, and love mountains.

But we might move out of CO.
WY, MT, ID, NV, UT; maybe.

Your location is beautiful, there's no question. The view is killer.

I'm sure the snow thing is based on where you were raised.

I didn't see snow for the first time until I was eight. I remember that I felt it wasn't the Charlie Brown Christmas fantasy that I had envisioned, it was just COLD.

I saw this with our cats in Tulelake. The two ferals we adopted loved playing in the snow, no matter what the temperature. The city cats took one walk in the snow (especially my avatar) and said NFW, and never went outside in the winter again.

[n2ize]

Depends on the person. I love the snow. But, that's because I love snow-activities: Winter camping, snowshoeing, hiking, etc.

My winter runs are some of the favorite runs too.

But, if you hole up at the first sign of snow, until spring, yeah, it makes you miserable.
I'm with you. I love the cold and snows. I am known to take walks in snowstorms and blizzards although they are getting rarer and rarer with climate change. I am working on a move to northern Alaska or Canada.

[WØTKX]

My cat Milhouse loves the snow, as does our doggie Boots.
Really cold, as in -10 or colder, they don't like that much.

Imagine having a great sense of smell after a fresh snowfall
After a fresh snow, like a long clear olfactory view.

[KG4CGC]

I can smell for miles :snicker: