Have we reached solar cycle maximum?

[N1LAF]

There may be indications that we are in or passed cycle 24 maximum.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

Last update: May 8, 2009

May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

We are well below 90.

[Dr. Detroit]

There may be indications that we are in or passed cycle 24 maximum.

This theory, and the accompanying graph, depresses the shit out of me. Even worse is the speculation that we're heading into a prolonged (50+ year) period of exceedingly low solar activity.

1. I'm a 10-meter fan ... my favorite band by far. So I pray for a huge solar max.
2. I'm not getting any younger. Have people over 50 already seen the best DX conditions of their lives? Is that HF goodness all in the past? Will it ever be like 1989 again in our lifetimes?
3. We need some prolonged spectacular conditions to fully reveal the magic of radio to the young folks.

Dr. D.

[NQ6U]

I can explain the wimpiness of Cycle 24: after over forty years of saying I was going to get my amateur radio license, I finally got it right around the time of the last solar minimum.

[N1LAF]

I hear you. It is still possible to communicate around the world in this lower sunspot cycle. This weekend, I worked my first RTTY contact, and it also happened to be my farthest contact, Australia on 40 meters.

Back on the Zed many years ago, I brought up that we may have a minimum occurring about this time, and was scoffed at. I think N2IZE was part of those conversations back then, but I don't remember. I do remember those conversations with GR8ADD. Cycle 24 was suppose to be spectacular. I was looking at the graph trends, and seemed like every 200 years there was a dip, or minimum, 1600's with Maunder Minimum, and 1800's with the Dalton Minimum. Then there were really minor dips every 100 years, and the early 1900's was one of them. Here we are, at a reduced cycle. The Russian scientists were also predicting a smaller cycle 24.

[Dr. Detroit]

Cycle 24 was suppose to be spectacular . . . Here we are, at a reduced cycle.

Yeah -- all I read from 2007 onwards was how huge 24 was going to be. Heh.

Well, it ain't over till it's over. I always love the contrarian view, so I'm gonna say 24 hasn't really started yet. We're in the prelude.

Dr. D.

[KJ3N]

1. I'm a 10-meter fan ... my favorite band by far. So I pray for a huge solar max.

I used to be a 10m fan when I was a Tech/Tech+ back during the 90s. After upgrading to General in 2001, not so much.


2. I'm not getting any younger. Have people over 50 already seen the best DX conditions of their lives? Is that HF goodness all in the past? Will it ever be like 1989 again in our lifetimes?

My first ticket was 1991, so I might have missed most of that one. However, 1999 through 2003 didn't treat me too bad. Had a lot of fun working Europe on 6m nearly very morning during the summer months. I'd sure like to see those conditions return.


3. We need some prolonged spectacular conditions to fully reveal the magic of radio to the young folks.

Plenty of opportunity on the other bands. 15m can be lots of fun even when 10m isn't open.

Everything is a matter of perspective. Low band enthusiasts prefer low sunspot numbers, as opposed to high ones. I've seen several complaints about the lousy conditions on 160m for the last year or so. During the last minimum, I worked plenty of DX on 75m throughout 2006-2009.

As long as you can be band flexible, you'll always have stations to work.

[Dr. Detroit]

I used to be a 10m fan when I was a Tech/Tech+ back during the 90s. After upgrading to General in 2001, not so much.

I like 10m because it's the great equalizer -- 25 watts or 1KW, it's almost the same when conditions are really good. This makes the band special. I've always had a modest station (never more than 100W, always with mediocre antennas), so 10m has been my friend over the years. I can use other bands (I'm an original recipe Extra, full of old-fashioned 20 wpm goodness) but QRO and big antennas play a much more significant role outside of 10m. Don't you think?


15m can be lots of fun even when 10m isn't open.

15m gave me Amsterdam Island ... yes sir, I love 15m, too.


As long as you can be band flexible, you'll always have stations to work.

If Cycle 24 doesn't perk up, I shall take increasing comfort in this thought. Thanks for expressing it.

--Dr. D.

[suddenseer]

I like 10m because it's the great equalizer -- 25 watts or 1KW, it's almost the same when conditions are really good. This makes the band special. I've always had a modest station (never more than 100W, always with mediocre antennas), so 10m has been my friend over the years. I can use other bands (I'm an original recipe Extra, full of old-fashioned 20 wpm goodness) but QRO and big antennas play a much more significant role outside of 10m. Don't you think?



15m gave me Amsterdam Island ... yes sir, I love 15m, too.



If Cycle 24 doesn't perk up, I shall take increasing comfort in this thought. Thanks for expressing it.

--Dr. D.I was chatting with someone on the west coast on 10m mobile 25W I think. There was some JA traffic that could be heard. I was using a shortened cb antenna I bought for $5.00. Every time I un keyed the mic, I heard the last few seconds of my tx signal. True long path, it was cool. There is always Echolink with the I phone app if the conditions never improve again.

[KC2UGV]

However, 1999 through 2003 didn't treat me too bad. Had a lot of fun working Europe on 6m nearly very morning during the summer months. 'd sure like to see those conditions return.


Unfortunately, I was just playing CB during that period, and it was rocking, even with a 12W SSB signal. Looking back, I know why now, and why it would have been great to be a ham when I was seeing the northern lights in Central TX.

[W5GA]

So far, this cycle has treated me well...allowing me to complete my 10m and 12m DXCC's. Now all I need to do is finish out 160.

[N7YA]

The cycle certainly isnt as intense as the last one was, but i cant complain. Lots of DX to be had out there.

No matter what, its not like we paid money for Cycle 24, we get what we get and have to make the best out of it.

[n2ize]

Everything is a matter of perspective. Low band enthusiasts prefer low sunspot numbers, as opposed to high ones. I've seen several complaints about the lousy conditions on 160m for the last year or so. During the last minimum, I worked plenty of DX on 75m throughout 2006-2009.

As long as you can be band flexible, you'll always have stations to work.

That's me. Majority of my HF operations are always < 7.3 mc.

[NQ6U]

Low band QRO is the way to go when the sun gets quiet. Time to erect that 160m inverted L and buy an amp, I guess.

[PA5COR]

Don't forget a good rx aantenna if you live in a noisy environment... i know ;)

[W5GA]

Don't forget a good rx aantenna if you live in a noisy environment... i know ;)
Or even if you don't!

[N1LAF]

There may be indications that we are in or passed cycle 24 maximum.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

...

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

We are well below 90.

Update...

It certianly looks like the peak has already passed. There is some speculation that this will be a double-peak cycle... they have been wrong before (but.. but.. but... there was consensus), time will tell.

[WØTKX]

Dunno yet. Data has a likely "gotcha". Technology has improved. Probably have slightly higher sunspot counts in more recent history. Couldn't resolve sunspots as well as we do now, not to mention other measurements. http://www.solarham.net/

Graph problem. Extrapolate what happens next, based on known data. Same source.http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/images/zurich.gif

[PA5COR]

The last cycles all had a double dip, i have no reason to believe this one is different so i'll expect a new small peak this year into next year.

I'm mostly at 160 meters anyway, but will use all bands, 10 has been good to me the last year worked all continents Japan, Indonesia, Aystralia New Sealand, India, China, Russia all Europe, Middle east USA South America,just naming a few.
Same for 12/15/17.
All with a simple Imax 2000 with 15 feet radials and 100-200 watts from the Ft 2000 D, or OCF antenna.
Worked a few Islanders as well on 10 that had just a wire and 100 watt.

At 60 i expect to see one maximum so, i'll not complain even in the low cycle i made some nice qso's by sporadic E.
In the start of being an licensed amateur i spend a lot of time on 2/70/23.
2x12 elements and homebrew 200 watt amp i made lots of good qso's all over Europe and had a ball, Aurora, sporadic E airplane scattering been there done it.

Being on the top of the maximum and connections made easy is nice, but no challenge.
I had just as much fun in the low end to improve my antenna's and get the maximum out of my puny station running max 1000 watts.
Same as having 160 as main preferred band fighting noise building amplified recieve loops, EWE's etc.
The Inverted L 77 feet high homemade with MFJ 998 autotuner at the feedpoint and 3000 feet copper wires as radials do quite well. even on 80/40/20.

I like a challenge, when things get too easy i'm not happy, i need to be able to experiment and build myself a new antenna. or extend the old situation.
That is what got me into amateur radio, building stuff like the 70 and 23 cm transverters P.A's and antenna's experiment with stuff, blowing some stuff up along the way.
My new law is where's the most smoke coms from the largest Amperage runs....
Now experimenting with a recieve loop from alu strip 1/2 inch wide 4 meters long followed by a long tailed pair BFG 65 transistor amp, doing quite well actually 6 meters away from the antenna's and 1000 watts will not pop the transistors...
1st one up in modular building next one on the working table in the workroom.
Low ESR C's for input, good for 20 KHz to 30 MHz, cut off there, the BFG 65 is a 8 GHz transistor and could run much higher but there is no need for that here.
On my small plot 100 feet by 25 feet including the footprint of the house i have for all frequencies 160 - 10 a vertical and a horizontal antenna up ( FD-4) and a recieve loop.
So i can switch antenna with the flick of the homebrew Heathkit switch for best results or switch to the loop for recieve as well, giving me 3 antenna's to use on any band.
I don't care as much for transceivers, i had just as much fun with the Yaesu FT 847 and Collins filters as the new FT 2000 D just that i have now 225 watts on 50 MHz, to put into the 5 element beam.

I don't do certificates i just have to look at the qsl cards recieved or my log to know i worked them all.
I rather have a lengthy qso with another ham to learn how he did things, getting inspiration or be able to give inspiration, as hunting certificates.
YMMV...

[N1LAF]

It's a good point you bring up about observations. This cycle does not have the big fat sunspots as in previous cycles, where they are more dots than spots. During the Maunder Minimum, to go that long without spots, I wonder if they were more like dots during that time.


Dunno yet. Data has a likely "gotcha". Technology has improved. Probably have slightly higher sunspot counts in more recent history. Couldn't resolve sunspots as well as we do now, not to mention other measurements. http://www.solarham.net/

Graph problem. Extrapolate what happens next, based on known data. Same source.http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/images/zurich.gif

[N1LAF]

Here is another sunspot cycle plot, which shows the Maunder Minimum, after 1700, cycles return, Notice the dip in magnitudes just after 1800, and again just after 1900. So 1700, 1800, 1900 had dips in magnitude, would not surprise me if this lower sunspot magnitude, is a dip in the same fashion.

http://www.climatepedia.org/images_pedia/SunspotCycle.jpg

[N1LAF]

The last cycles all had a double dip, i have no reason to believe this one is different so i'll expect a new small peak this year into next year.


You can see that little dip in the middle of the cycles in the previous cycles, as illustrated below

http://www.climate4you.com/images/SIDC%20DailySunspotNumberSince1977.gif

[N7YA]

Between '96 and '98, i was working lots of DX...Africa, Asia, all 50 states, etc...with 5w and a dipole. These kinds of things dont mean the end of quality operating, they just mean that when the peak is high, you can basically work rare ones by yelling out the window. And if you are a top bander, little of this matters anyway.

[N1LAF]

Cor, looks like your prediction has arrived, we may be on the beginning of the second peak.

Sunspot number: 173

[n2ize]

Here is another sunspot cycle plot, which shows the Maunder Minimum, after 1700, cycles return, Notice the dip in magnitudes just after 1800, and again just after 1900. So 1700, 1800, 1900 had dips in magnitude, would not surprise me if this lower sunspot magnitude, is a dip in the same fashion.

http://www.climatepedia.org/images_pedia/SunspotCycle.jpg

Maybe we are now in the Meandering Minimum.

[PA5COR]

Was expecting that, looking back at the last ones, though this one still doesn't come close to the 2000 one which wasn't good either.
But looking through my log i see worldwide qso's with 100 - 200 watt from the FT 2000-D on 80 - 10 and 160 this winter wasn't too bad either.

I don't have terrific antenna's just my inverted L, an OCF and another vertical for 17-10.
Nothing spectacular, you just need to be on the right band at the right time.
After a dip yesterday evening of the flare, 80-20 fully open here 09.00 hours.
Get going on the bands, in 5 years time you will be sorry you didn't fully use the time.
I'm a top band nutter, but that doesn't mean i won't go to all other bands ;)

[N2RJ]

This solar cycle has been weak like piss.

So I am making the most of the high bands for now. Every opportunity I get, I am working 12 and 10 meters. Even 15m and 17m doesn't get spared.

In the late 90s and early 00's it was great. I was first licensed in 1997 and in 2000/2001 remember DX just rolling in all hours of the day. It was great.