Sun nearly blank

[N1LAF]

ALMOST-BLANK SUN: In case you needed a reminder that this solar cycle is the weakest in decades, take a look at the solar disk.

Today it's almost blank: Only last month, solar activity reached a fever pitch with one sunspot alone dumping enough energy in Earth's atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years. Such outbursts are consistent with predictions that solar maximum is only about one year away. Yet even on the threshold of Solar Max, the sun remains capable of deep quiet.

Sunspot number: 24

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[PA5COR]

So what?

During the better weeks i already worked all continents on 10/12/15/18/20 MHz.
And most countries too in Phone... anywhere from 10 - 1000 watts output here.
Even a few years back when we had no sunspots at all i found a way to work the world, there is always a band open, if you understand propagation a bit.

It let me improve my antenna setup, try different configurations to adapt to the situation.
It would be nice to have a good maximum, but in 2000 and on i already expected this to be a worse one and with just some up periods lasti g a few weeks at a time.

A least 160 stays usable LOL

[n2ize]

ALMOST-BLANK SUN: In case you needed a reminder that this solar cycle is the weakest in decades, take a look at the solar disk.

Today it's almost blank: Only last month, solar activity reached a fever pitch with one sunspot alone dumping enough energy in Earth's atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years. Such outbursts are consistent with predictions that solar maximum is only about one year away. Yet even on the threshold of Solar Max, the sun remains capable of deep quiet.

Sunspot number: 24

http://www.spaceweather.com/

And notice the effect it has been having on the weather. When it was spewing energy = warm winter. Now it is blank = cool April.

[PA5COR]

If that was true we should have had super conditions for decades by now.

Reality check: The energy (http://forums.hamisland.net/pages/2491/Energy.html) output of the Sun varies very little over the solar cycle (i.e., by about 0.1%).

[N2RJ]

So what?


During the peak in 2001 I used to talk on 10m FM simplex to Europe. When the spots are abundant the bands are HOT.

[KG4CGC]

Poland every morning for 2 weeks in '01 on a modest GP.

[NQ6U]

Was hearing the EU and South America from Six Land on 20m PSK31 last night, sunspots or no.

[W1GUH]

One "so what" is 10m AM. That is a great mode/band when the band's open. Only problem is when the band closes again & 10m is the loneliest place!

But 20m? Even with no sunspots, Eurpoe is routine from the east coast, even from the mobile.

[KC2UGV]

During the peak in 2001 I used to talk on 10m FM simplex to Europe. When the spots are abundant the bands are HOT.

I was a CB'er during that period, and man! CB was hardly usable due to so hearing so much. The entire hemisphere on every channel! And, to boot, while in Texas, I got to see the Aurora Borealis :)

[KC2UGV]

One "so what" is 10m AM. That is a great mode/band when the band's open. Only problem is when the band closes again & 10m is the loneliest place!

But 20m? Even with no sunspots, Eurpoe is routine from the east coast, even from the mobile.

You'd be shocked at how much activity is on PSK, even with the band "silent" :)

[n2ize]

If that was true we should have had super conditions for decades by now.

Reality check: The energy (http://forums.hamisland.net/pages/2491/Energy.html) output of the Sun varies very little over the solar cycle (i.e., by about 0.1%).


here are some suggestions that there may also be regional climate impacts due to the solar activity. Measurements from NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Radiation_and_Climate_Experiment) show that solar UV output is more variable than the total solar irradiance. Climate modelling suggests that low solar activity may result in, for example, colder winters in the US and southern Europe and warmer winters in Canada and northern Europe, with little change in globally-averaged temperature.[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation#cite_note-SolarForcing-1) More broadly, links have been suggested between solar cycles, global climate and events like El Nino (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Nino).[85] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation#cite_note-84) In other research, Daniel J. Hancock and Douglas N. Yarger found "statistically significant relationships between the double [~21 year] sunspot cycle and the 'January thaw' phenomenon along the East Coast and between the double sunspot cycle and 'drought' (June temperature and precipitation) in the Midwest."[86] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation#cite_note-85)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation#Solar_Variation_and_Weather

[PA5COR]

last 2 years we saw sunspots rising, though we had some cold winters.
It's weather.

Over the last 30 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate are going in opposite directions. This has led a number of scientists independently concluding that the sun cannot be the cause of recent global warming.
One of the most common and persistent climate myths is that the sun is the cause. This argument is made by cherry picking the data - showing past periods when sun and climate move together but ignoring the last few decades when the two diverge.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Solar_vs_Temp_basic.gif

[ab1ga]

- "Going in opposite directions" looks more like phase lag when I look at the posted data.

- Many of the arguments in this area seem to ignore the possibility of feedback loops. The divergence of the last thirty years could be just such an effect. As with all poorly understood time series, whether we're on the edge of thermal runaway will probably not be known until it's too late to do anything about it.

[n2ize]

last 2 years we saw sunspots rising, though we had some cold winters.
It's weather.

Over the last 30 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate are going in opposite directions. This has led a number of scientists independently concluding that the sun cannot be the cause of recent global warming.
One of the most common and persistent climate myths is that the sun is the cause. This argument is made by cherry picking the data - showing past periods when sun and climate move together but ignoring the last few decades when the two diverge.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Solar_vs_Temp_basic.gif

Bear in mind that the stuff I referenced has nothing to do with global warming or its denial. They are not talking about global warming or climate change here, they are talking about the possible relation between solar activity and short term REGIONAL weather. Apparently they see some possible correlations. So for example a correlation between high solar activity and milder winters in New York or low solar activity and colder winters in new York and warmer winters in Europe.

Global average climate change however is not believed to be related to solar activity. Indeed, even if it is true and there is a correlation between solar activity and regional weather patters the bottom line is present day global warming is very real and it is almost entirely due to man made activity. So yes, I agree with you and you are correct.

[PA5COR]

Not looking at the start of the scale where the "lag" is just one or 2 years, the middle almost follows the minute rise in solar output, but the end is totally off the scale, since 1980 we see a downward trend in solar output and a very sharp rise in the global temperature.

[W7XF]

Another day with 24 sunspots. Something tells me 2m will be better than 20 today.

[PA5COR]

Muf here 20.18 MHz, 20 open.quick spin of the Ft 2000 D delivered wall to wall stations USA-Ukraine for starters and lots more.
All on the OCF FD-4 from Fritzel at 45 feet above ground.