A New Dalton Minimum?

[NQ6U]

Looks like we may be facing another "Little Ice Age," similar to the one that occurred in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. If this is true, the overall ramifications of such a thing for society as a whole are not good. The most important thing, though, is that us hams will experience much poorer propagation conditions until it passes. Unfortunately, since the last Dalton Minimum lasted forty years, I imagine that many of us Islanders won't be around to see the end of it.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/

[PA5COR]

Since the temperatures since the start of the last century went up by more as 2 degrees it might even be good.
Higher bands, i already concentrated on 160 and 80/40.
20 is open in the daytime, and better antenna's give you an edge now, and in case of a reasonable max, a better edge.

[N1LAF]

This sounds all too familiar...
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?13863-deVries-205-year-solar-cycle-upon-us&p=272508&viewfull=1#post272508
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?13863-deVries-205-year-solar-cycle-upon-us&p=272512&viewfull=1#post272512
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?10122-Global-Warming-Alarmists-need-not-read...&p=191085&viewfull=1#post191085
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?8637-Solar-minimum-of-2008-2009-Century-class-event&p=161441&viewfull=1#post161441
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?3568-Sun-has-first-spotless-month-since-1913&p=54564&viewfull=1#post54564
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?1939-It-s-all-about-the-Sun-AGW-in-Question-N2IZE-take-note&p=27811&viewfull=1#post27811

Besides, I didn't want to disappoint Adam for not taking this opportunity to post...
;)

[WØTKX]

Well gee whiz, I guess the new topic should be deleted?

:whistle:

[NQ6U]

Well gee whiz, I guess the new topic should be deleted?

:whistle:

Ain't gonna bother me none if'n y' does.

[N1LAF]

Five years ago (or more) I posted the possibility of a Dalton-like minimum approaching on the Zed, only to be, basically, laughed at. All those posts are log gone from the deletster over there, but I was not criticized here for making these posts.

[PA5COR]

We can differ in opinion, but the reality is we really don't know, do we?
As i wrote be4 we study this for 400 years from the 4.5 billion years the earth is old.

We don't know how many cycles there might be or that this is just a small dip and the next one moght be a lot better, we can know if we look back at this in 25 years time, but then i'm history if nature does it's thing at the average age of a man here at 79.
I'm not laughing at your opinion, your's might be just as right as my opinion is, history will prove who was right ;)

[N1LAF]

We can differ in opinion, but the reality is we really don't know, do we?
As i wrote be4 we study this for 400 years from the 4.5 billion years the earth is old.

We don't know how many cycles there might be or that this is just a small dip and the next one moght be a lot better, we can know if we look back at this in 25 years time, but then i'm history if nature does it's thing at the average age of a man here at 79.
I'm not laughing at your opinion, your's might be just as right as my opinion is, history will prove who was right ;)

I hear what you are saying, but consider the graphic below, there is a significant minimum about every 200 years, not exact, but close enough to give a high probability of a prolonged minimum during now.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/73/Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png/800px-Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png

By looking at cycles before and during the Dalton minimum, there is a strong correlation. See the graphic below (from Carl's link)

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/dalton_fig9.png

For FYI, the sun has been spotless for five straight days

[PA5COR]

I saw the graphs, and the minimums before, and if that should be another minimum, my low band antenna's will see overtime.
But then, we won't know for sure in another 25 or 50 years won't we, long after we're gone.

For the time being i gave up on this cycle 24, and concentrated for the low bands, i can get on any frequency from 160 - .70 meterss, but i build my setup as you can find on the antenna section here for the low bands.

Back to C.W. maybe, or digital modes... but then i love SSB/AM...

[n2ize]

I hear what you are saying, but consider the graphic below, there is a significant minimum about every 200 years, not exact, but close enough to give a high probability of a prolonged minimum during now.


Be careful when you use the term "probability" in this context.. There is a huge difference between intuitive probability versus probability based on mathematical analysis. As far as whether or not there will be a "minimum" the answer is not probabilistic at all. Either there will be or their won't be.

[WØTKX]

Maunder Eigenstate? :lol:

[NQ6U]

Maunder Eigenstate? :lol:

We won't know until we open the box. At least that's what my cat tells me.

[N2NH]

There were other circumstances in the early 19th Century that contributed to the "Little Ice Age." In that period there was an explosive eruption at Tambora in Java, Indonesia. In fact this explosion was significantly larger than Krakatoa in 1883. It is considered the most explosive volcanic eruption in the last 2 millenia. There were significant climate changes as a result. I suspect that would throw off any measurements that might allude to the changes that occurred then solely to the sun.


The 1815 eruption released sulfur into the stratosphere, causing a global climate anomaly. Different methods have estimated the ejected sulfur mass during the eruption: the petrological method; an optical depth measurement based on anatomical observations; and the polar ice core sulfate concentration method, using cores from Greenland and Antarctica. The figures vary depending on the method, ranging from 10 to 120 million tons S.

In the spring and summer of 1816, a persistent dry fog was observed in the northeastern United States. The fog reddened and dimmed the sunlight, such that sunspots were visible to the naked eye. Neither wind nor rainfall dispersed the "fog". It was identified as a stratospheric sulfate aerosol veil. In summer 1816, countries in the Northern Hemisphere suffered extreme weather conditions, dubbed the Year Without a Summer. Average global temperatures decreased about 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F), enough to cause significant agricultural problems around the globe. On 4 June 1816, frosts were reported in Connecticut, and by the following day, most of New England was gripped by the cold front. On 6 June 1816, snow fell in Albany, New York, and Dennysville, Maine. Such conditions occurred for at least three months and ruined most agricultural crops in North America. Canada experienced extreme cold during that summer. Snow 30 centimetres (12 in) deep accumulated near Quebec City from 6 to 10 June 1816.
1816 was the second coldest year in the northern hemisphere since CE 1400, after 1601 following the 1600 Huaynaputina eruption in Peru. The 1810s are the coldest decade on record, a result of Tambora's 1815 eruption and other suspected eruptions somewhere between 1809 and 1810 (see sulfate concentration figure from ice core data). The surface temperature anomalies during the summer of 1816, 1817 and 1818 were −0.51, −0.44 and −0.29 °C, respectively. As well as a cooler summer, parts of Europe experienced a stormier winter.

This pattern of climate anomaly has been blamed for the severity of typhus epidemic in southeast Europe and the eastern Mediterranean between 1816 and 1819. Much livestock died in New England during the winter of 1816–1817. Cool temperatures and heavy rains resulted in failed harvests in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Families in Wales traveled long distances as refugees, begging for food. Famine was prevalent in north and southwest Ireland, following the failure of wheat, oat and potato harvests. The crisis was severe in Germany, where food prices rose sharply. Due to the unknown cause of the problems, demonstrations in front of grain markets and bakeries, followed by riots, arson and looting, took place in many European cities. It was the worst famine of the 19th century.

From that Wiki Place... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora)

[N2NH]

The alternative that is being bandied about is much worse than the Dalton Minimum. The idea that this is the beginning of a Maunder Minimum... if that is the case, a lot of people will probably die in the upcoming decades even if we don't go to war over food, water and resources.

The Minimum? Maunder or Dalton? (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/more-maunder-than-dalton/)

[N7YA]

This sounds all too familiar...
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?13863-deVries-205-year-solar-cycle-upon-us&p=272508&viewfull=1#post272508
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?13863-deVries-205-year-solar-cycle-upon-us&p=272512&viewfull=1#post272512
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?10122-Global-Warming-Alarmists-need-not-read...&p=191085&viewfull=1#post191085
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?8637-Solar-minimum-of-2008-2009-Century-class-event&p=161441&viewfull=1#post161441
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?3568-Sun-has-first-spotless-month-since-1913&p=54564&viewfull=1#post54564
http://forums.hamisland.net/showthread.php?1939-It-s-all-about-the-Sun-AGW-in-Question-N2IZE-take-note&p=27811&viewfull=1#post27811

Besides, I didn't want to disappoint Adam for not taking this opportunity to post...
;)

Thank you, Paul. I knew you wouldnt disappoint.

[KG4CGC]

The Sun is on No One's Schedule!
We dance to the tune set by the Sun.

[n2ize]

The alternative that is being bandied about is much worse than the Dalton Minimum. The idea that this is the beginning of a Maunder Minimum... if that is the case, a lot of people will probably die in the upcoming decades even if we don't go to war over food, water and resources.

The Minimum? Maunder or Dalton? (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/more-maunder-than-dalton/)

A lot of people will die in upcoming decades regardless. It's inevitable because a lot of people die every hour of every day. There is nothing to indicate (with significant certainty) that there will be a significant increase in mortality as a result of a low sunspot event similar to the Maunder minimum. There is a casual relation between low sunspot periods and cooler winters but its hard to establish a close statistical correlation within a high level of confidence. It's likely that a strong hurricane season or a few strong Nor'easters along the east coast will result in increased mortality as well.

Now I don't know about you and Dalton and Maunder, but I'm signing off probability and statistics for a while. It's Christmas Eve round here and I've got myself a batch of raisin jack to dip into and enjoy. Happy Holidays.

[KG4CGC]

John, more people will die.

[NQ6U]

John, more people will die.

Yeah, but don't worry—it will be mostly foreigners with darker skin than ours. Well, than yours, anyhow. I'm often mistaken for a Mexican myself.

[W2NAP]

hey who knows maybe ill get to see a max again before i croak... and have a radio to enjoy it with