View Full Version : deVries 205 year solar cycle upon us
N1LAF
10-09-2010, 05:03 PM
In addition to the 11 year sunspot cycle, there are two other short cycles that are picked up by scientific analysis. It is suggested that low solar cycle 24 is the result of being at the low end of the de Vries cycle. The last minimum of this magnitude was the Dalton minimum, and that was 205 years ago.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/archibald_cycle24_image2.png?w=520&h=331
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/02/solar-cycle-24-update/
You can see that cycles 22 and 23 is similar to cycles 3 and 4 - just before the Dalton Minimum.
The next previous incident of the 205 de Vries cycle was at the beginning of the Maunder Minimum. The Maunder minimum must have coincided with both the de Vries cycle minimum and another longer wave cycle. What is happening now only occurs every 205 years.
In the 14C record, which extends back for 11500 years, the principal periodicity determined by frequency analysis is that of the 205-year de Vries cycle, though the 2300-year Hallstatt cycle is also present (Beer 2000). The de Vries cycle is also prominent in the 10Be record, which Clilverd et al. do not exploit. Over the last decade, 10Be abundances have been measured in ice cores from Greenland, yielding a proxy record that so far extends back for 50000 years (see figure 1b). Statistical analysis of this rich data set (Wagner et al. 2001) reveals a significant peak in the power spectrum at a 205-year period that is definitely solar in origin (see figure 2).
http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/products/journals/aag/AAG_April04/aag_45206.htm
Very interesting, but false. The real reason Cycle 24 is doing so poorly is that, after 40+ years of saying I was going to do it, I finally got my ticket last year. So, of course it will be another 200 years before propagation picks up again.
N1LAF
10-09-2010, 05:10 PM
Most solar physicists do not think anything that odd is going on with the Sun. With the recent burst of sunspots, “I don’t see we’re going into that,” Dr. Hathaway said last week.
Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible, Dr. Hathaway said. (The minimums are named after scientists who helped identify them: Edward W. Maunder and John Dalton.)
David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala
Is the Sun Missing Its Spots?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2
N1LAF
10-09-2010, 05:11 PM
Very interesting, but false. The real reason Cycle 24 is doing so poorly is that, after 40+ years of saying I was going to do it, I finally got my ticket last year. So, of course it will be another 200 years before propagation picks up again.
Why do you say it's false? What proof do you have to counter this?
never mind...
Why do you say it's false? What proof do you have to counter this?
Read my post again--it's a joke!
N1LAF
10-09-2010, 05:16 PM
More...
Article first published online: 8 APR 2004
DOI: 10.1046/j.1468-4004.2003.45206_1.x
Astronomy & Geophysics
Volume 45, Issue 2, page 2.06, April 2004
In the 14C record, which extends back for 11500 years, the principal periodicity determined by frequency analysis is that of the 205-year de Vries cycle, though the 2300-year Hallstatt cycle is also present (Beer 2000). The de Vries cycle is also prominent in the 10Be record, which Clilverd et al. do not exploit. Over the last decade, 10Be abundances have been measured in ice cores from Greenland, yielding a proxy record that so far extends back for 50000 years (see figure 1b). Statistical analysis of this rich data set (Wagner et al. 2001) reveals a significant peak in the power spectrum at a 205-year period that is definitely solar in origin (see figure 2).
http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/products/journals/aag/AAG_April04/figs/aag_45206_f2.gif
http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/products/journals/aag/AAG_April04/aag_45206.htm
N1LAF
10-09-2010, 05:17 PM
Read my post again--it's a joke!
Ah.. got it...
The sun is out to punish you...
So what did you do??
:snicker:
Ah.. got it...
The sun is out to punish you...
So what did you do??
:snicker:
I'm not sure but I think the universe hates me. Luna is mooning me constantly.
PA5COR
10-09-2010, 05:44 PM
Thanks for nothing, what did WE do to suffer this? :squint::lol:
I'm not sure but I think the universe hates me. Luna is mooning me constantly.
kb2crk
10-09-2010, 06:06 PM
Very interesting, but false. The real reason Cycle 24 is doing so poorly is that, after 40+ years of saying I was going to do it, I finally got my ticket last year. So, of course it will be another 200 years before propagation picks up again.
that explains it all. all this work on antennas and for naught because you pissed the sun off....
PA5COR
10-09-2010, 06:14 PM
Lots of speculations.
Temperature on the earth still going up, contradicting the conclusion in that piece.
Last decade while the cycle weathered out to nothing we had the hottest years on record.
On proof there will be, be back in 200 years :shock::lol:
KA5PIU
10-09-2010, 06:25 PM
Lots of speculations.
Temperature on the earth still going up, contradicting the conclusion in that piece.
Last decade while the cycle weathered out to nothing we had the hottest years on record.
On proof there will be, be back in 200 years :shock::lol:
Hello.
The theory I subscribe to is this.
The sun produces ejections that fortify the electromagnetic field around the earth, the ionosphere and others, creating a barrier to other radiation that the sun produces, creating and average of solar radiation that is lower.
With a lower average the earth is a touch cooler.
that explains it all. all this work on antennas and for naught because you pissed the sun off....
Mea culpa. I shoulda knowed better but I have to admit that it's even worse than I ever would have expected. I mean, 200 years? The Powers That Be must really want to be sure I'm dead before they bring back the sunspots.
Perhaps a sacrifice to Ra is in order?
Perhaps a sacrifice to Ra is in order?
We could throw Rudy into the Island volcano...
The sure cure for a bad cycle is low bands/hi power.
N7RJD
10-09-2010, 08:08 PM
We could throw Rudy into the Island volcano...
No way, Rudy may be a bit out there at times but the place just wouldn't be the same without him.
Besides, what did the volcano ever do to you?
n2ize
10-09-2010, 08:35 PM
Cycles.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=256xUgLLdZQ
No way, Rudy may be a bit out there at times but the place just wouldn't be the same without him.
Besides, what did the volcano ever do to you?
Nothing. Either did Rudy, but it's fun to yank his chain.
KG4CGC
10-09-2010, 08:39 PM
No way, Rudy may be a bit out there at times but the place just wouldn't be the same without him.
Besides, what did the volcano ever do to you?
No worries. The Volcano already spit him back out.
n2ize
10-09-2010, 08:40 PM
Lots of speculations.
Temperature on the earth still going up, contradicting the conclusion in that piece.
Last decade while the cycle weathered out to nothing we had the hottest years on record.
On proof there will be, be back in 200 years :shock::lol:
the problem is that cycles have nothing to do with climate change. Cycles, are basically a shifting of energies. Global changes are a product of forcings as opposed to cycles.
kc7jty
10-09-2010, 10:29 PM
When solar cycles return to normal so will be the Morse requirement once again to operate HF.
ki4itv
10-09-2010, 10:49 PM
Wow, this thread has almost everything!
Low propagation, self-loathing, global warming, human sacrifice, return of the morse requirement, a simple misunderstanding, and a volcano vomit reference.
IOMH rocks!:rofl:
edit: forgot Frank Sinatra FTW!
I think this thread is pretty amazing too.
Climate forecasts based on theories from observations going back millenia. Yet, the same people will swear there's no way to use data going that far back to make an intelligent statement on climate change.
Ever notice how "Intelligent Design"/Creationism people have no problem with DNA evidence in court, but use the exact same technology to explain evolution and all that instantly goes out the window.
:yes:
In fact, knowing that people can not handle science unless it coincidentally bolsters their own beliefs (no matter how outlandish they are) conclusively proves that there was no Intelligence in the Design of man.
:nuts:
ki4itv
10-09-2010, 11:15 PM
Wow, always so intense and about your own game.
Wow, always so intense and about your own game.
Don't bogart that joint...
;)
ki4itv
10-09-2010, 11:46 PM
...and never too proud for a low blow either.;)
w2amr
10-10-2010, 03:43 AM
Oh Snap. This mean the HR-2600 stays in the box.
N1LAF
10-10-2010, 05:25 AM
This is a solar cycle posts, and knowing what the solar cycle is going to do, will impact on radio propagation. Not a climate change post thus being in General Chat. There will be lag in effect from cause measured in years, so the effects from solar change on climate is not immediate.
What is happening today is a once in a 205 year event.
Lots of speculations.
Temperature on the earth still going up, contradicting the conclusion in that piece.
Last decade while the cycle weathered out to nothing we had the hottest years on record.
On proof there will be, be back in 200 years :shock::lol:
N1LAF
10-10-2010, 05:26 AM
The Hallstatt-Like Cycle ~ 2400 years
The fourth cycle in the Sun’s motion is the result of 8.93 O prograde shift that happens to the line-opposition of Jupiter,
Saturn and the Sun between successive oppositions of Jupiter and Saturn. This means that it takes 40.3135 Jupiter/Saturn
synodic periods for the line-of-opposition to complete one orbit with respect to the stars. However, it takes three of these
orbits (i.e. 3 x 40.3135 = 120.9405 ~ 121 Jupiter/Saturn synodic periods = 2 402.94 years) for an opposition of Jupiter and
Saturn to return to roughly the same point with respect to the stars. This period almost matches the ~ 2300 year Hallstatt
Cycle that is seen in the de-trended δC14 tree ring data (Peristykh and Damon 2003) here on Earth.
http://solarimg.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=126
...and never too proud for a low blow either.;)
Ah, well, if you're not gonna share, then.. :-P
PA5COR
10-10-2010, 08:02 AM
At this point in time this is just speculation.
Having been through 3 cycles as ham radio nutter i always predicted this one would be a very low one, have a look over the Zed if you doubt that.
Here the solar "experts" also predicted first a very high solar activity based on the old data....well, we know what cycle 24 brings us till now.. the opposite.
They also looked at the past behavior of the sun to make their now obsolete and wrong predictions.
That is why i wrote, we don't know, and can't predict the future of the sun's behavior yet, come back in 200 years i wrote...
Ice cores, tree rings let us look back maybe 300.000 years, insignificant in the 4.6 billions of years the sun is there.
We can guess, even try to find some logic based on old data, but I'm afraid the sun is not really interested to follow our predictions and will go on doing things it's own way.
Meaning you can be right, and just as wrong too.
A few years back i went mainly investing in antenna's and setup for the low bands, 160/80 and 40 in preparation of what i saw and expected for this cycle.
Here i was not wrong...
I can work all bands from 160 - 70 Cm's, but i expect to have the most chance on the lower end of the spectrum, hoping for all i will be proven wrong....
1970 was reasonable, the 1980 and 1990 quite good, but the last one already showed a lower sunspot number as before.
We also see a contracted ionosphere, Earth’s upper atmosphere and space has moved to extraordinarily low altitudes.
All this makes me believe that "Kiss Your Last Big Solar Maximum Goodbye" is upon us, I'm 58 so when this one passes as a dud as i believe, I'll be 71 for the next one if that one will act normal.
Since the solar cycles are in decline from the last one on, i think I'll not see another good one happening.
I worked a few good ones, but for the new and younger hams it will be a disappointment.
but, what do i know? :-D
suddenseer
10-10-2010, 08:20 AM
How dare us demand the sun behave exactly as we have calculated it should? It's gonna do what it's gonna due. No need fer hissy fits if it don't.
WØTKX
10-10-2010, 12:02 PM
http://www.jeremybear.com/images/blogger/joe_vs_volcano_wallpaper_big.jpg
http://www.jeremybear.com/images/blogger/joe_vs_volcano_wallpaper_big.jpg
Joe vs. the Volcano?
KG4CGC
10-10-2010, 12:11 PM
The Irish discovered America 928 years before Columbus. Columbus actually used Irish maps based on their Atlantic crossings.
N1LAF
10-10-2010, 12:36 PM
Well, the records left behind was telling us that this cycle (205 years since Dalton minimum) was going to be very low. Dalton was two cycles long, so Cor, you may have to wait a little longer..
PA5COR
10-10-2010, 12:54 PM
Here i am thinking it were the Vikings...
http://news.softpedia.com/news/How-Did-Vikings-Discover-America-49891.shtml
Leif first met the Baffin Island (in today's northeastern Canada), covered by glaciers and without pastures. Going southwards, they found a forested plain, with beaches of white sand they named Marklandia (The Forested Land), in today's Labrador. A few days later, the Vikings found an even better territory.
They built houses there and wintered in that territory. One man discovered vines and the land was named Vinlandia (The Wine Land). In spring, they returned to Greenland with the cellars filled with products from the area.
http://i1-news.softpedia-static.com/images/newsrsz/How-Did-Vikings-Discover-America-3.jpg (http://news.softpedia.com/newsImage/How-Did-Vikings-Discover-America-3.jpg/)
http://www.softpedia.com//base_img/tb_zoom.gif (http://news.softpedia.com/newsImage/How-Did-Vikings-Discover-America-3.jpg/) Until today, all these lands have remained a mystery. In the 60s and 70s, in the surroundings of the L'Anse Aux Meadows village (Newfoundland), archaeologists found the ruins of some houses with distinguishable northern features, like an iron founding oven and other objects dated from the year 1000.
In the 90s, a Danish researcher found in southern Newfoundland a well-polished stone piece coming from a Viking craft. Leif recounted his journey to the Norwegian king.
In 1070, the German historian Adam of Bremen traveled to Denmark to collect information about northern countries, and the Danish king Sweyn told him about Vinlandia and its excellent wine.
Or were it the ancient phoeniciers, or Egypt?
We are told, for example, that Columbus ‘discovered’ America in 1492, yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest that others had visited America before Columbus: including visitors from ancient Egypt, Phoenicia and medieval Europe. Despite this modern authorities continue to push the line that “Columbus discovered America.”
In point of fact Columbus himself never even set eyes upon America; the closest he got to the mainland of North America was Puerto Rica.
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=139
The discovery of various Roman coins around the U.S has led some researchers to conclude that America was the final destination for a wave of people who came not as colonists but as refugees. The coins, which have been found largely around the Mississippi-Arkansas-Ohio-Missouri river systems, cover the later periods of Rome and particularly the reigns of Antoninus Pius, Gallienus and Emperor Tetricus. A period of Roman rule that Gibbon describes as a time of “uninterrupted …confusion and calamity.” So it’s quite possible that these coins were left by what were in effect boat people seeking refuge from a disintegrating Empire.
The notion that elements from Rome’s Carthaginian colony in Libya may have visited America has been further underlined by the Burrow’s Cave find. Amongst the thousands of artefacts in the collection is the depiction of a Negroid face carved on a stone tablet in a distinctly Roman style. Predictably it has been virtually ignored by the various authorities. After all the idea that North African’s were visiting North America over a thousand years before Columbus challenges much of written history
Or were it Muslims?
And for the record, Christopher Columbus, the man who so-called discovered America, himself declared that his impression of the Carib people (i.e., Caribbean people) were "Mohemmedans." He knew of the Mandinka presence in the New World (Muslims) and that Muslims from the West coast of Africa had settled down in the Carribean, Central, South and North America. Unlike Columbus, they had not come to enslave the populations or plunder the land; they had come to trade and they married among the Natives. Columbus further admitted that on October 21st, 1492, as he was sailing past Gibara on the coast of Cuba, he saw a mosque, and remnants of other masjids have been found in Cuba, Mexico, Texas and Nevada.
These are a matter of record; they cannot be disputed. Go to the National Archives or the Library of Congress and see for yourself; the Treat of 1987 show that the Natives abided by an Islamic system in commerce, maritime shipping and government. The records of the State of Carolina has the Moors Sundry Act of 1790. The Cherokee Chief of 1866 was a man called Ramadhan Bin Wati. Native clothing up until 1832 was full Islamic wear. The name Tallahassee actually means," Allah will deliver you sometime in the future." In North America, there are no less than 565 names of tribes, villages, cities, mountains and other lands sites of Islamic or Arabic roots.
The truth of Islam and the truth of the Native American culture is one and the same; many people hundreds of years ago realised that. The protection of the land and of the animals; the non-wastage of resources and the non-pollution of nature are all Islamic concepts.
I finish this article with a few Native sayings. And then, I want you to tell me that Islam is not nurtured in the hearts of these people.
"Our belief is that the Great Spirit has created all things. Not just mankind but animals, all plants, all rocks, all on earth and amongst the stars with true soul. For us, all life is holy. All of nature is within us and we are part of all nature." Chief White Cloud
"What is life? It is the flash of a firefly in the night." Crowfoot "In the life of the Indian there was only one inevitable duty- the duty of prayer - the daily recognition of the Unseen and the Eternal." Ohiyesa
http://www.themodernreligion.com/ht/before-columbus.html
So, pick one....;)
KG4CGC
10-10-2010, 01:01 PM
Here i am thinking it were the Vikings...
http://news.softpedia.com/news/How-Did-Vikings-Discover-America-49891.shtml
Or were it the ancient phoeniciers, or Egypt?
We are told, for example, that Columbus ‘discovered’ America in 1492, yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest that others had visited America before Columbus: including visitors from ancient Egypt, Phoenicia and medieval Europe. Despite this modern authorities continue to push the line that “Columbus discovered America.”
In point of fact Columbus himself never even set eyes upon America; the closest he got to the mainland of North America was Puerto Rica.
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=139
The discovery of various Roman coins around the U.S has led some researchers to conclude that America was the final destination for a wave of people who came not as colonists but as refugees. The coins, which have been found largely around the Mississippi-Arkansas-Ohio-Missouri river systems, cover the later periods of Rome and particularly the reigns of Antoninus Pius, Gallienus and Emperor Tetricus. A period of Roman rule that Gibbon describes as a time of “uninterrupted …confusion and calamity.” So it’s quite possible that these coins were left by what were in effect boat people seeking refuge from a disintegrating Empire.
The notion that elements from Rome’s Carthaginian colony in Libya may have visited America has been further underlined by the Burrow’s Cave find. Amongst the thousands of artefacts in the collection is the depiction of a Negroid face carved on a stone tablet in a distinctly Roman style. Predictably it has been virtually ignored by the various authorities. After all the idea that North African’s were visiting North America over a thousand years before Columbus challenges much of written history
Or were it Muslims?
And for the record, Christopher Columbus, the man who so-called discovered America, himself declared that his impression of the Carib people (i.e., Caribbean people) were "Mohemmedans." He knew of the Mandinka presence in the New World (Muslims) and that Muslims from the West coast of Africa had settled down in the Carribean, Central, South and North America. Unlike Columbus, they had not come to enslave the populations or plunder the land; they had come to trade and they married among the Natives. Columbus further admitted that on October 21st, 1492, as he was sailing past Gibara on the coast of Cuba, he saw a mosque, and remnants of other masjids have been found in Cuba, Mexico, Texas and Nevada.
These are a matter of record; they cannot be disputed. Go to the National Archives or the Library of Congress and see for yourself; the Treat of 1987 show that the Natives abided by an Islamic system in commerce, maritime shipping and government. The records of the State of Carolina has the Moors Sundry Act of 1790. The Cherokee Chief of 1866 was a man called Ramadhan Bin Wati. Native clothing up until 1832 was full Islamic wear. The name Tallahassee actually means," Allah will deliver you sometime in the future." In North America, there are no less than 565 names of tribes, villages, cities, mountains and other lands sites of Islamic or Arabic roots.
The truth of Islam and the truth of the Native American culture is one and the same; many people hundreds of years ago realised that. The protection of the land and of the animals; the non-wastage of resources and the non-pollution of nature are all Islamic concepts.
I finish this article with a few Native sayings. And then, I want you to tell me that Islam is not nurtured in the hearts of these people.
"Our belief is that the Great Spirit has created all things. Not just mankind but animals, all plants, all rocks, all on earth and amongst the stars with true soul. For us, all life is holy. All of nature is within us and we are part of all nature." Chief White Cloud
"What is life? It is the flash of a firefly in the night." Crowfoot "In the life of the Indian there was only one inevitable duty- the duty of prayer - the daily recognition of the Unseen and the Eternal." Ohiyesa
http://www.themodernreligion.com/ht/before-columbus.html
So, pick one....;)
There is evidence that the Japanese were in east coast of SA 4500 years before Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
PA5COR
10-10-2010, 01:01 PM
I already made my plan, not believing in a very good cycle in my lifetime as i wrote about the decissions about my antenna farm here.
There will be sporadic E, Aurora ( less as usual) enough to keep an eye open for the higher bands though.
If it is the Dalton Cycle, or De Vries cycle or just the sun sticking it's tongue out for other reasons.
Then, i might be proved just as wrong and the next cycle can be a mother of all cycles....:lol:
Well, the records left behind was telling us that this cycle (205 years since Dalton minimum) was going to be very low. Dalton was two cycles long, so Cor, you may have to wait a little longer..
N1LAF
10-10-2010, 01:38 PM
Only time will tell if this period of low sunspots is a single 11 year or dual 22 year cycle.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg/500px-Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg.png
Some of the 205 year cycle minimums are deep to not so deep as shown above
n2ize
10-10-2010, 08:45 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q7FFjUpVLg
W2NAP
10-10-2010, 10:03 PM
welp, guess i might as well stay a tech. and not worry about HF untill im 100
KA5PIU
10-11-2010, 12:00 AM
Hello.
You can work long range HF.
160 meters will do hundreds of miles with groundwave.
PA5COR
10-11-2010, 03:02 AM
If you read my story in the antenna secction you know i now have a 23 meter vertical ( 77 feet) up with a wire to form an inverted L antenna.
And 700 meters (2200 feet) of copper in the ground which is very good ground for H.F. ( silty seaclay)
Each evening working Europe with 100 watts on 160 m, Ukraine, etc.( max i can make is 900 wats)
Yesterday we heard faintly the first Australian SSB signal, just not good enough to work.
I work daily 100 km's groundwave, when all other bands fail, 160 mostly just keeps ticking.
Put up my EWE antenna 15 feet high, 30 feet long, all i can put up here.
;)
kc7jty
10-11-2010, 03:43 AM
Had Switzerland coming in here at s-9 @ 2 pm (very unusual) a few days back on 17 ssb. He was between 2 heterodynes and my notch could kill only one or the other.
You can work long range HF.
160 meters will do hundreds of miles with groundwave.
You may even work The Gambia, under the right conditions. ;)
(yes, that's confirmed)
welp, guess i might as well stay a tech. and not worry about HF untill im 100
Nah--regardless of how minimal the next solar peak may be, conditions are still going to get better than they are now and I've worked half the world with a very modest station since getting my general less than a year ago. HF is fun and it's only going to become more fun over the next few years.
I'm not sure but I think the universe hates me. Luna is mooning me constantly.
Oh, I love a straight line...
You are a Fluke of the Universe.
You have no right to be here.
And whether you can hear it or not,
The Universe is laughing behind your back.
Therefore, make peace with your God,
Whatever you conceive him to be:
Hairy Thunderer,
or Cosmic Muffin.
With all it hopes, dreams, promises, and urban renewal, the world continues to deteriorate.
GIVE UP.
No worries. The Volcano already spit him back out.
If Rudy is "Joe," as played by Tom Hanks, who substitutes for Meg Ryan? To say nothing of Abe Vigoda and Nathan Lane.
[I am NOT volunteering]
I think this thread is pretty amazing too.
Climate forecasts based on theories from observations going back millenia. Yet, the same people will swear there's no way to use data going that far back to make an intelligent statement on climate change.
Ever notice how "Intelligent Design"/Creationism people have no problem with DNA evidence in court, but use the exact same technology to explain evolution and all that instantly goes out the window.
:yes:
In fact, knowing that people can not handle science unless it coincidentally bolsters their own beliefs (no matter how outlandish they are) conclusively proves that there was no Intelligence in the Design of man.
:nuts:
Simon & Garfunkel said it best:
A man will hear what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest
http://www.jeremybear.com/images/blogger/joe_vs_volcano_wallpaper_big.jpgJoe vs. the Volcano?Yup
Oh, I love a straight line...
And whether you can hear it or not,
The Universe is laughing behind your back.
Not true. The universe is not laughing behind my back, it's laughing right in my face.
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